原油期货：地缘持续发酵，供应压制

Report Summary - Report Date: December 29, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Shi Xiuming [2] - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The US sanctions on Venezuela have led to a slowdown in oil shipping operations, with daily crude oil exports decreasing by about 200,000 barrels (a 25% decline) last week, accounting for only 0.7% of OPEC's production and having a small impact on the global supply. On Friday, international oil prices fell by over 2%, influenced by market expectations of a possible Ukraine peace agreement. Although OPEC+ has suspended production increases in Q1, non -减产联盟 countries like Brazil and Canada are expected to increase production, keeping supply sufficient. Even if the Russia - Ukraine conflict is resolved, Russia's oil supply will still be adjusted according to OPEC+ goals. The market should be treated with a view of weakening volatility [2]. - Factors to Watch: Geopolitics and weekly crude oil data [3] Weekly Fundamental Data Changes 1. Spot and Futures Market Review - SC Crude Oil Futures: The price is 441.80 yuan/barrel, with a weekly increase of 15.20 yuan and a change rate of 3.56% [4] - Oman Crude Oil Spot: The price is 62.66 dollars/barrel, with a weekly increase of 1.90 dollars and a change rate of 3.13% [4] - Brent Crude Oil Futures: The price is 62.28 dollars/barrel, with a weekly increase of 1.73 dollars and a change rate of 2.86% [4] - WTI Crude Oil Futures: The price is 56.90 dollars/barrel, with a weekly increase of 0.35 dollars and a change rate of 0.62% [4] 2. Supply Situation Analysis - US Crude Oil Production: The production is 13,842 thousand barrels per day, with a weekly decrease of 20 thousand barrels and a change rate of - 0.14% [4] 3. Crude Oil Inventory - US Crude Oil Inventory: The inventory is 424,417 thousand barrels, with no change from the previous week [4] 4. Demand Situation Analysis - Not provided with specific data analysis in the text 5. Cost - Profit Analysis - Comprehensive Refinery Profit: The profit is 663 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan and a change rate of 8.16% [4]