Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of live pigs is supported by second - fattening entry and pre - holiday stocking, but there is still room for adjustment after the price increase if market consumption does not increase significantly [4]. - The short - term price of corn is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the market supply - demand rhythm is stable [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - Futures and Spot Prices: Last week, the live pig futures fluctuated strongly. The LH2603 contract closed at 11,645 yuan/ton, up 3.14% from the previous week's settlement price. The national ex - ternary live pig market price was 11.63 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [4]. - Profit Situation: As of December 26, the self - breeding and self - raising live pig breeding profit was - 130.11 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 162.8 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 26.7 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.02, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 [4]. - Market Analysis: The national live pig spot price first fell and then rose last week. With the drop in temperature, the demand for large pigs increased. Second - fattening entry sentiment improved locally, and farmers' reluctance to sell strengthened. Before the New Year's Day, downstream stocking was okay. Near the end of the month, the slaughter volume of the breeding end may shrink, and second - fattening will intercept pig sources. In the later stage, if market consumption does not increase significantly, the live pig price may be adjusted after the increase [4]. Corn - Futures and Spot Prices: Last week, the corn futures first declined and then rose. The C2603 contract closed at 2,222 yuan/ton, up 1.46% from the previous week's settlement price. The national corn spot average price was 2,338.63 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [5]. - Port Prices: As of December 26, in Jinzhou Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and a bulk density of over 720 was 2,235 - 2,245 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the flat - hold price of 15% moisture corn was 2,300 - 2,320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton. In Bayuquan Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and a bulk density of over 720 was 2,235 - 2,245 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the flat - hold price of 15% moisture corn was 2,300 - 2,320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton. In Guangdong Shekou Port, the transaction price of 15% moisture corn bulk grain was 2,430 - 2,450 yuan/ton, and the first - grade corn price was 2,440 - 2,460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Deep - processing Consumption: From December 18 to December 24, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.397 million tons of corn, a week - on - week decrease of 15,900 tons. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 635,300 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons from the previous week; the weekly national corn starch output was 330,800 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 60.46%. The operating rate of the DDGS industry decreased slightly, with a reference operating rate of 64.88%, a decrease of 0.34% from the previous week's 65.22%; the weekly production volume of sample enterprises was 132,030 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.53% [6]. - Inventory Situation: As of December 24, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.378 million tons, an increase of 4.26%. As of December 26, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 1.8 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 560,000 tons [6]. - Market Analysis: The national corn spot price was weakly adjusted last week. The grain - selling progress at the grass - roots level was faster than the same period last year. Farmers had a certain price - holding mentality, and enterprise purchase prices were mainly stable with local small adjustments. In terms of demand, there was new corn starch production capacity released in Shandong, and corn consumption increased slightly. The operating rates of alcohol enterprises varied, with an overall slight decrease. The pig - breeding industry was in a continuous loss state, and the enthusiasm of feed enterprises for replenishing inventory weakened. The short - term market supply - demand rhythm is stable, and the corn price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7].
二育入场支撑生猪价格,玉米下方存有支撑
Cai Da Qi Huo·2025-12-29 07:23