Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-29 07:46Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the railway equipment industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [4]. Core Insights - The railway investment in China is projected to remain a highly certain direction, with a total investment of 753.8 billion yuan from January to November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. If this growth rate continues in December, the total railway fixed asset investment for the year is expected to exceed 900 billion yuan, setting a historical record [4]. - The report anticipates that by 2035, the national railway network will reach approximately 200,000 kilometers, including around 70,000 kilometers of high-speed rail, significantly enhancing connectivity to major urban areas and resource-rich regions [4]. - The economic and flexible advantages of railway transportation are highlighted, with a projected increase in both passenger and freight volumes. For instance, the freight volume reached 4.83 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, while passenger volume hit 4.279 billion, growing by 6.6% [4]. - The vehicle segment is expected to benefit the most in the long term, with an additional 20,000 kilometers of high-speed rail planned and a growing demand for new trains as older models reach the end of their lifespan [4]. - The report recommends focusing on the high-speed train industry chain, particularly core suppliers such as CRRC Corporation Limited (for complete trains and key components) and other related companies [4]. Summary by Sections Railway Investment - The total railway investment for 2025 is projected to exceed 900 billion yuan, marking a historical high [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for a railway network of 200,000 kilometers by 2035, enhancing connectivity to major cities and resource areas [4]. Transportation Advantages - The railway system's capacity and cost-effectiveness are emphasized, with a significant increase in both freight and passenger volumes expected [4]. - The government aims to reduce logistics costs, with targets set for 2027 to improve the share of railway freight [4]. Vehicle Segment - The demand for new high-speed trains is expected to rise, with a current fleet of 5,233 high-speed trains, including 2,248 Fuxing trains [4]. - The report notes a significant increase in the bidding for high-speed trains, indicating strong demand [4]. Recommended Companies - Key companies to watch include CRRC Corporation, Sifang Control, and others involved in the high-speed rail supply chain [4].