可转债周报：沪指收八连阳，转债也迎来放量上涨-20251229

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded eight consecutive positive days, and convertible bonds also saw increased trading volume and price hikes. The convertible bond market followed the underlying stocks, with significantly improved trading activity. The small - cap style continued to outperform, and high - price and small - cap convertible bond indices led the gains. - In the short term, the convertible bond market may experience increased volatility and enter a volatile phase. This is because the Shanghai Composite Index is approaching the critical 4000 - point level after eight consecutive positive days, and the convertible bond valuation has increased marginally. Additionally, there may be liquidity impacts before the holiday, and the continuous outflow of funds from convertible bond ETFs indicates a relatively cautious outlook among low - risk - preference investors. - Overall, hard - tech themes with obvious policy catalysts or industrialization prospects are still expected to perform well in the cross - year and spring rallies, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Recently, the listing pace of new convertible bond issues has accelerated, and convertible bond subscription remains highly cost - effective. However, the high - flying sectors such as commercial aerospace and lithium - battery may have relatively lower cost - effectiveness after their short - term price increases [3][11]. Policy Tracking - On December 24, eight departments including the central bank issued the "Opinions on Financial Support for Accelerating the Construction of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor", aiming to deepen financial reform, innovation, and opening - up, and comprehensively improve the financial service system of the corridor, which will support high - quality development, drive high - level opening - up of inland areas, and contribute to the overall development of the country and global integration. - On December 26, the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund jointly established by the NDRC and the Ministry of Finance was launched. It emphasizes support for "hard - tech", adheres to the "early - stage and small - scale investment" principle, shares venture capital risks, and strengthens post - investment management. Three regional funds have been established and have signed a number of intended sub - funds and direct investment projects in fields like integrated circuits, quantum technology, and biotechnology [4][5]. Secondary Market Equity Market - Last week, major domestic equity market indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index increased by 1.88%, 3.53%, and 3.90% respectively. Overseas, the US stock market rose, the US dollar and US Treasury yields declined slightly, and most global capital markets closed higher. In China, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate above 7 boosted market confidence, and the equity market showed significant volume - driven growth, with the cross - year rally gradually starting. The commercial aerospace and intelligent driving sectors, as well as the non - ferrous metals sector, performed well [7]. - Specifically, the daily trading volume in the A - share market was high throughout the week, ranging from 1.88 trillion yuan to 2.18 trillion yuan. Different sectors were active on different days, such as the Hainan Free Trade Port concept, semiconductor industry chain, and commercial aerospace concept [8]. Convertible Bond Market - The major convertible bond market indices rose collectively. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index increased by 1.64%, 1.53%, and 1.75% respectively, with an average daily trading volume of 800.58 billion yuan, a marginal increase of 164.46 billion yuan compared to the previous week. - The small - cap style continued to outperform in the convertible bond market. The Wind Convertible Bond High - Price Index led the gains among sub - indices with a 3.80% increase, and small - cap convertible bonds also showed strong performance with a gain of over 2%. High - rated and large - cap convertible bonds lagged. - In terms of historical quantiles, the overall price level of underlying stocks changed slightly, the conversion value increased marginally, driving the convertible bond price to rise further. The valuation level also increased, and the trading sentiment improved significantly. - In terms of industries, most convertible bonds in various industries rose. Convertible bonds in the national defense and military industry led the market with an average increase of over 7%, and those in the building materials industry also performed well. Only convertible bonds in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and food and beverage industries declined slightly. - In terms of valuation, most convertible bond valuations in various industries decreased. The average conversion premium rate since 2020 decreased by 2.16 percentage points to the 52.60% quantile, and the median conversion premium rate decreased by 1.90 percentage points to the 49.97% quantile. - In terms of individual bonds, most convertible bonds rose. Among the rising bonds, Jiamei Convertible Bond rose by over 37%, followed by Zai 22 Convertible Bond and Mengsheng Convertible Bond, which rose by over 30% and 29% respectively. Among the falling bonds, Huati Convertible Bond led the decline with a drop of over 17% [9][10][12][13]. Primary Market - Last week, Jin 05 Convertible Bond and Shuangle Convertible Bond were issued, and Puxin Convertible Bond was listed. Six convertible bonds were redeemed early, and three convertible bonds matured and were delisted. As of December 26, the outstanding scale of the convertible bond market was 558.791 billion yuan, a decrease of 175.102 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year and 8.35 billion yuan compared to the previous week. - The issuance scale last week was 2.472 billion yuan. Jin 05 Convertible Bond is issued by Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology Co., Ltd., a global power equipment supplier. Shuangle Convertible Bond is issued by Shuangle Pigment Co., Ltd., which focuses on digital and intelligent transformation services. - Puxin Convertible Bond rose by 57.3% on its first trading day and over 64% in the first week. As of last Friday, its conversion premium rate reached 83.44%, exceeding the market median level. - Six convertible bonds had a conversion ratio of over 5% last week, six less than the previous week. Some bonds have announced early redemptions or are expected to trigger early redemption conditions. - As of last Friday, three convertible bonds have been approved by the CSRC and are awaiting issuance, with a total scale of 3.429 billion yuan, and ten convertible bonds have passed the review committee, with a total scale of 8.515 billion yuan [36][37][39][40][41].