产地天气出现变数，警惕供给端扰动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - Supply is neutral - bullish, with attention on weather. Southeast Asian rainstorms may cause减产, and dry conditions in South America are unfavorable for new - season soybean yields. Domestic soybean oil mills are operating normally with sufficient supply for now, while domestic rapeseed is in short supply and awaits imports [3]. - Demand is under observation. Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel quota is close to B40 but fails to reach B50, indicating implementation difficulties. The US biodiesel RVO has a significant impact on international oil and fat supply - demand, but its release time is uncertain. Domestic soybean oil consumption is stable with export support [3]. - Regarding inventory, palm oil is under observation as Malaysia's palm oil inventory is high, with the year - end carry - over inventory expected to reach 3 million tons, pressuring the market. Domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing and will be tight in Q1, and rapeseed oil is also gradually reducing inventory due to supply shortages [3]. - Macroeconomic and policy factors are bullish. Indonesia's B50 policy has funding issues and an uncertain implementation time. The US biodiesel policy's general direction is unchanged but specific policies are yet to be implemented. Policy adjustments such as delayed soybean entry and delayed Australian rapeseed commercial pressing have a short - term negative impact on the oil and fat supply rhythm [3]. - Investment view: Wait for buying opportunities in palm oil. MPOB's December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but it will reverse later due to seasonal production cuts, B50 policy, and US biodiesel. Short - term rallies in rapeseed oil are due to trader pick - ups and blocked rapeseed imports, but it will face pressure from global rapeseed bumper harvests after trade flows are restored [3]. - Trading strategy: For arbitrage, lightly allocate P5 - 9 positive spreads; for single - side trading, short rapeseed oil [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 2.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Analyze supply from aspects like international weather impacts on production and domestic supply status, demand from biodiesel policies and domestic consumption, inventory from palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil inventory levels, and macro - policy from biodiesel policies and import - related policies. Provide investment views and trading strategies based on these analyses [3]. 2.2 Market Review - Present the closing prices of major oil and fat contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as price differences between different contracts and spot price differences between different oils [5][9][14]. 2.3 Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Fundamentals - Southeast Asian Weather: Show data on precipitation, temperature, and precipitation anomalies in Southeast Asia, including past, present, and future forecasts [17][19][21]. - Indonesian Monthly Supply - Demand: Display data on Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory [30][34][35]. - Malaysian Monthly Supply - Demand: Provide data on Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory [36][41]. - Indian Monthly Imports and International Soybean - Palm Oil Price Differences: Present Indian import volumes of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, and the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil [42][46]. - Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand: Include data on China's palm oil import volume, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and import profit [48][52]. - Weather and Soybean Production Situation: Show data on soybean planting progress, temperature, and precipitation in Brazil and Argentina [59][62][68]. - US and Brazilian Export Situations: Provide data on US soybean export sales volume, export volume, Brazilian soybean monthly export volume, and CNF premium [73][77]. - Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation: Include data on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, soybean oil production volume, daily trading volume, and inventory [87]. - Origin Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation: Show data on rapeseed FOB prices, Canadian rapeseed export volume, rapeseed oil export volume, import crushing profit, domestic expected arrival volume, and rapeseed oil arrival volume [88][90]. - Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation: Provide data on China's rapeseed weekly crushing volume, rapeseed oil production volume, pick - up volume, and inventory [95][98].