利率债周报：资金面宽松带动短债走强，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化-20251229

Report Industry Investment Rating - None provided Core Viewpoints - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend this week, with the 10-year Treasury yield continuing to fluctuate between 1.83% and 1.88%. The improvement in cross-year funds is expected to support the continued strength of short-term bonds, and the yield curve may steepen further [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Bond Market Review Secondary Market - The bond market fluctuated last week, with short-term bond yields declining significantly and long-term yields rising slightly. The 10-year Treasury futures main contract rose 0.20% cumulatively. On Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.68bp from the previous Friday, while the 1-year Treasury yield dropped 6.75bp, and the term spread widened significantly [5] - On December 22, the bond market weakened under pressure due to stable LPR quotes and rising stock markets. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1.09bp, and the 10-year futures main contract fell 0.09% [6] - On December 23, the bond market strengthened due to the entry of allocation funds. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.63bp, and the 10-year futures main contract rose 0.26% [6] - On December 24, the bond market oscillated under the influence of multiple rumors. The 10-year Treasury yield fell slightly by 0.04bp, and the 10-year futures main contract rose 0.02% [6] - On December 25, the bond market fluctuated narrowly, with short-term bonds remaining warm and medium - and long-term bonds weakening. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.30bp, and the 10-year futures main contract fell 0.02% [6] - On December 26, the bond market warmed up due to loose funds and early - year allocation expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.10bp, and the 10-year futures main contract rose 0.10% [6][7] Primary Market - Nine interest rate bonds were issued last week, 26 less than the previous week, with a total issuance of 210.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 166 billion yuan. The net financing was 174.8 billion yuan, an increase of 153.9 billion yuan. There were no policy - financial bonds issued or repaid. Treasury issuance and net financing increased, while local bond issuance decreased, and net financing also decreased [15] - The overall subscription demand for interest rate bonds was acceptable. The average subscription multiple for 3 issued Treasuries was 2.74 times, and for 6 local bonds, it was 15.17 times [16] 2. Last Week's Important Events - The central bank conducted 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on December 25. With 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, the net MLF investment in December was 100 billion yuan, which was the tenth consecutive month of increased roll - over, meeting market expectations. This was to support the liquidity of the banking system and help stabilize growth and expectations at the end of the year [18] 3. Real Economy Observation - High - frequency production data showed mixed trends last week. Blast furnace operating rates and petroleum asphalt plant operating rates continued to decline, while semi - steel tire operating rates and daily hot metal production rebounded [19] - In terms of demand, the BDI index continued to decline, while the CCFI index continued to rise. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to increase [19] - In terms of prices, pork prices fell slightly, while most commodity prices rose, including copper and oil prices, and the rebar price fell slightly [19] 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net investment in the open market last week was 155.2 billion yuan [26][28] - R007 and DR007 both rose, the issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks declined overall, the national - share direct discount rate increased significantly, the volume of pledged repurchase decreased significantly, and the leverage ratio of the inter - bank market first rose and then fell, with a slight overall increase [31][33][36]