汇率高频追踪

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the release of the 4.6% unemployment rate data in the US, the threshold for the decline of the long - end US Treasury yield increased again, the US Treasury yield curve continued to steepen, and the US dollar continued to weaken. Against the backdrop of a weakening US dollar, the RMB continued to appreciate to around 7. However, the RMB's appreciation speed may slow down in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Contents Exchange Rate Operation Core Logic - After the December FOMC meeting and the release of the US November unemployment rate data, market concerns about the non - linear rise of the US unemployment rate in the future resurfaced, shifting the focus from inflation to the labor market [2] - The reasons for the weakening of the US dollar are the possible statistical problems in the household survey part due to the US government shutdown in October affecting the November data and market concerns about a false signal similar to last year's [2] - The RMB has been appreciating, with the offshore RMB exchange rate performing stronger than the onshore one, indicating increased attractiveness of domestic asset returns and continuous inflow of foreign capital. The enhanced willingness to settle foreign exchange and the year - end seasonal peak also support the RMB, but the central bank's guidance on the mid - price and the rising short - end swap points may slow the RMB's appreciation [2] Economic Indexes and Exchange Rates - The difference between the US and European Citi Economic Surprise Indexes has rebounded [7] - The difference between the US and European long - term inflation expectations has increased [9] - The US long - term inflation expectation has declined [11] - The short - term US interest rate expectation has slightly changed [13] - The VIX index has fallen back to a low level [15] - The difference between the US and European short - term interest rate expectations has slightly decreased [16] Other Indicators and Exchange Rates - The euro swap basis shows that the US dollar cross - border liquidity pressure is limited [20] - The CFTC net position shows that the US dollar maintains a net negative position exposure [24] Exchange Rate and Commodity Prices - The copper price has significantly increased [30] - The crude oil price has remained at a low level [32]