美国GDP高于预期，中国LPR维持不变

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities rebounded significantly, with most varieties seeing an uptick, including both industrial and agricultural product indices. The reasons include the poor US employment data and controllable inflation data, which may give the Federal Reserve a basis to continue cutting interest rates in the first half of 2026, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite; the domestic economic situation is weak with strong supply and weak demand, and the black - series performed worse than other sectors [3]. - Considering the latest changes in economic growth momentum and the relatively high base in the same period last year, it is expected that the economic operation in the first quarter of 2026 will still face certain downward pressure. Therefore, monetary policy is expected to end the observation period and enter the active stage to stabilize the economic operation in the first quarter of 2026 [3]. - In the short term, market sentiment has improved, and commodities have rebounded. This is due to the possible Fed rate - cuts in the first half of 2026, positive domestic policy tones after important meetings, and geopolitical factors such as the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and potential US actions against Venezuela, which will cause fluctuations in energy prices and drive a phased rebound in energy prices [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - GDP: In the third quarter, the US real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate was 4.3%, higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8%, reaching the fastest growth rate in two years. The PCE price index annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate was 2.9%, in line with expectations but maintaining a high level. The core driving factor for the strong growth in the third quarter was the better - than - expected performance on the consumption side. However, due to factors such as the previous federal government "shutdown", the economic growth in the fourth quarter is expected to slow down significantly, and the annual growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 2% or lower [3]. - Employment Data: In November, the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, better than the market expectation of 50,000. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, higher than 4.4% in September and slightly higher than the expected 4.5%, reaching a new high since September 2021. If the unemployment rate further rises to 4.7% in December, it may trigger the "Sam Rule" recession indicator again [3]. - Inflation Data: The US inflation rate in November was significantly lower than market expectations, showing a cooling trend. The CPI in November was 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%, and the core CPI year - on - year dropped to 2.6%, also lower than the expected 3%. The poor employment data and controllable inflation data may give the Federal Reserve a basis to continue cutting interest rates in the first half of 2026 [3]. - Other Regions: In the eurozone, the PMI in December showed certain changes compared with November. In Japan, the export and import data and CPI data in November also had corresponding performance [18][22]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - Industrial Enterprise Profits: According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on December 27, 2025, China's industrial enterprise profit data in November showed the characteristics of "slight cumulative increase, single - month pressure, and structural differentiation". In November, the revenue of industrial enterprises above the designated size was stable, but profits declined. The year - on - year decline in operating income narrowed, but the year - on - year decline in profits widened. The overall profitability still lacks effective support, and weak domestic demand remains a drag on corporate profitability [3]. - LPR: On December 22, 2025, the central bank issued a credit repair policy and kept the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR unchanged. The credit repair policy can accurately distinguish overdue types and optimize the allocation of credit resources, and the stability of LPR helps maintain internal and external balance. Considering the economic situation, it is expected that the monetary policy will enter the active stage to stabilize the economic operation in the first quarter of 2026 [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - Industrial开工率: The report tracks the开工率 of the polyester industry chain and the blast furnace开工率. For example, on December 26, the开工 rate of PTA in the polyester industry chain was 72%, and the开工 rate of POY was 86% [38]. - Consumer - related Data: It also tracks data such as the wholesale and retail data of manufacturers and the inventory data of some products. For example, on December 25, certain data showed specific percentage changes [45]. - Commodity Price Data: The report monitors the prices of some commodities, such as the average wholesale prices of vegetables, pork, and fruits, as well as the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices [47].