天然橡胶周报：市场风险偏好回升，橡胶偏强反弹-20251229

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of natural rubber is "oscillating" [4] Core Viewpoints - Market risk preference has rebounded, leading to a strong rebound in rubber prices. Despite a generally weak fundamental situation, positive sentiment in the commodity market and increased risk - taking by funds have contributed to this upward movement [9] - Currently, raw material prices provide strong support, mid - stream inventories are increasing, short - term downstream demand may weaken, the futures - spot price difference has re - expanded to the same level as the same period, and short - term sentiment in the commodity market is positive. Therefore, rubber is expected to maintain a strong oscillating performance [4] Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is bullish. In China, Yunnan has stopped tapping, and Hainan is mostly in a state of reduced tapping. In Thailand, the overall weather is normal, and the supply in the southern region is increasing. In Vietnam, the supply is stable, and raw material prices are firm [3] - Demand: It is bearish. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased, while that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased slightly. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises may still decline [3] - Inventory: It is bearish. As of December 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased, and as of December 26, the RU warehouse receipt inventory on the SHFE increased, while the 20 - rubber warehouse receipt inventory decreased [3] - Basis/Spread: It is neutral. The RU - mixed spread and the RU - NR spread have both widened [3] - Profit: It is neutral. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber has narrowed, while that of domestic concentrated latex in Hainan has expanded [3] - Valuation: It is neutral. The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3] - Weather etc.: It is bullish. Recently, the overall performance of commodities has been positive, and the market's bullish sentiment has increased. Next week, rainfall in southern Thailand is expected to increase, which may disrupt supply in the short term [3] - Investment View: Rubber is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy is to "buy on dips" for single - side trading and "go long on NR and short on RU" for arbitrage [4][5] 2. Futures and Spot Market Review - Futures Market: This week, rubber rebounded strongly. As of December 26, the RU main contract closed at 15,780 yuan/ton, up 590 yuan/ton (+3.88%) for the week, and the 20 - rubber main contract closed at 12,755 yuan/ton, up 395 yuan/ton (+3.20%) for the week [9] - Spot Market: Spot prices rebounded and rose [12] - Positions on the Disk: Both RU and NR positions increased [26] - Spreads on the Disk: The RU - NR spread widened, and the RU2601 - RU2605 spread narrowed [33] 3. Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - 产区Weather: The weather in the Thai production area is normal [40] - Upstream Raw Materials: Glue prices declined, while cup - lump prices remained stable [50] - Main Producing Countries' Output: In November, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 1,026 million tons (-0.24%) [62] - Main Producing Countries' Exports: In the first 11 months, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 8.84 million tons (+0.73%) [75] - China's Imports: From January to November, China imported 5.8716 million tons of natural rubber (+16.98%). In November, the import volume increased significantly [85][92][99] - Mid - stream Inventory: China's social inventory continued to increase. As of December 21, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber was 1.182 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons or 2.5% from the previous period [101][109] - Downstream Tire Demand: The operating rate of full - steel tires declined, while that of semi - steel tires rebounded. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises may still decline [110][116] - Downstream Tire Inventory: The available inventory days of tires in Shandong decreased [117] - Automobiles and Heavy Trucks: In November, the growth rate of automobile sales narrowed, while the sales of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year [121][131] - Tire Exports: From January to November, tire exports were 8.83 million tons (+3.7%), and the cumulative growth rate narrowed [132][139] - Cost and Profit: The production profit of Thai standard rubber and latex both rebounded [141] - Futures - Spot Price Difference: The futures - spot price difference of the mixed rubber widened [152]