进入淡季，供需双减

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of asphalt is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests "oscillation" for single - side trading and "none" for arbitrage [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, asphalt supply showed an increasing trend with both domestic production and imports contributing. Next period, supply may contract slightly due to some refineries' production conversion and planned maintenance. Demand presented a north - south differentiation pattern with overall rigid demand support but uneven intensity. New snow and rain may suppress future demand. Inventory showed a pattern of "factory inventory destocking and social inventory accumulation", and the overall pressure is expected to rise slightly. Cost is mainly driven by the raw material end, and the support is expected to continue but may be affected by market supply - demand games [4] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][8] 3.2 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - It shows the historical data of asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC*6.35)), asphalt - coking material spread from 2021 to 2025, and the basis of asphalt in major regions from 2024 to 2025 [12][13][17] 3.3 Supply - Scheduled Production Expectation: It shows the monthly scheduled production and output of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10, as well as the output of asphalt in regions like North China, South China, Shandong, and East China from 2021 to 2025 [20][24][27] - Capacity Utilization: It presents the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [36][38][41] - Maintenance Loss Volume: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [43] 3.4 Cost and Profit - It shows the production gross profit of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [46][50][51] 3.5 Inventory - Factory Inventory: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [55][58] - Social Inventory: It shows the social inventory of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [61] 3.6 Demand - Shipment Volume: It shows the shipment volumes of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [64] - Downstream Operating Rate: It shows the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions from 2022 to 2025 [66][70][73]