油脂油料2026年度报告：潮平岸阔，静待晨曦

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the report expects the overall trend of oils and fats to be oscillating upward, but currently lacks strong drivers. Without positive macro - capital support, the upside potential for oils and fats is limited. It also suggests paying attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on palm oil and shorting rapeseed oil in the first quarter due to the abundant rapeseed harvest and palm oil inventory reduction [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy - CBOT soybeans are unlikely to fall below 1000 cents per bushel. If the U.S. biodiesel policy is favorable, it is expected to oscillate upward. Palm oil prices are unlikely to break through 10,000 yuan per ton. Rapeseed oil will be under pressure in the first half of the year. The overall trend of oils and fats is expected to be oscillating upward, but the upside potential is limited. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on palm oil and shorting rapeseed oil in the first quarter [8]. - The main influencing factors include South American weather, trade policies, biodiesel policies, and Indonesian palm oil production [9]. 3.2 2025 Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Market Review 3.2.1 Oils and Fats Unilateral Review - In 2025, the overall trend of oils and fats was slightly upward with oscillations, showing a differentiated trend. Palm oil prices were volatile, with significant drops in October. U.S. soybean oil prices rose significantly, while rapeseed oil prices fell due to abundant supply. The market was affected by various factors such as USDA reports, U.S. biodiesel policies, and geopolitical conflicts [12][15]. 3.2.2 Oils and Fats Spread Review - The spreads between soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil changed throughout the year, affected by factors such as palm oil seasonal production, global rapeseed production, and anti - dumping investigations [20]. 3.2.3 Protein Meal Unilateral Review - Protein meal prices were volatile, affected by factors such as USDA reports, U.S. tariff policies, and soybean import volumes. The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends at different times [23]. 3.2.4 Protein Meal Spread Review - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal mainly oscillated between 350 - 550, with significant changes in March, April, August, and November, affected by tariff policies and anti - dumping investigations [27]. 3.3 Global Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Global Oilseeds - Global oilseeds are in abundant supply with variety differentiation. In the 2025/26 period, the total global oilseed production is expected to be 690.255 million tons, an increase of 5.75 million tons year - on - year. The production of soybeans decreased by 4.613 million tons, while the production of rapeseed increased by 9.274 million tons [31][32]. - Global vegetable oils are expected to see a slight reduction in inventory, while the inventory of protein meals will remain largely unchanged. In the 2025/26 period, the global vegetable oil production is expected to be 233.288 million tons, an increase of 3.732 million tons year - on - year, and the inventory will decrease by 0.393 million tons. The global protein meal production is expected to be 393.578 million tons, an increase of 7.538 million tons year - on - year, and the inventory will remain basically the same [35][37]. 3.3.2 Soybean Series - Global soybean production is decreasing and inventory is being reduced. In the 2025/26 period, the global soybean production is 422.541 million tons, a decrease of 4.613 million tons year - on - year. The production in the U.S. decreased by 3.296 million tons, while that in Brazil increased by 3.5 million tons, and that in Argentina decreased by 2.608 million tons [41]. - U.S. soybean production decreased, and the planting cost increased slightly. The planting area decreased by 6.2 million acres, and the production decreased by 121 million bushels. The estimated planting cost in 2026 is 678.25 dollars per acre [44]. - U.S. soybean crushing demand is strong, and the export proportion is decreasing. In the 2025/26 period, the estimated crushing volume is 2.555 billion bushels, an increase of 4.50% year - on - year, and the export volume is expected to decrease by 6.73 million tons [50][54]. - Brazil's soybean planting area is increasing, and the production and export volume are expected to increase. In the 2025/26 period, the estimated production is 177 million tons, an increase of 3.29% year - on - year, and the export volume and crushing volume are expected to increase [56][66]. - Argentina's soybean production is expected to decrease slightly, but the export volume increased significantly in 2024/25 due to abundant production and reduced export taxes. In the 2025/26 period, the estimated production is 48.5 million tons, a decrease from the previous year [70][74]. 3.3.3 Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil production increased in 2025, but exports were weak, and inventory accumulated to a high level. The production from January to November was 18.4541 million tons, an increase of 3.38% year - on - year, and the export volume decreased by 10.41% [83][87]. - Indonesia's palm oil production increased in 2025, and the inventory remained low. The production from January to September was 43.34 million tons, an increase of 11.31% year - on - year. The export volume increased, and domestic consumption also increased [99][106]. 3.3.4 Rapeseed and Sunflower Seeds - Global rapeseed production is abundant, and supply is sufficient. In the 2025/26 period, the global rapeseed production is expected to be 95.273 million tons, an increase of 9.274 million tons year - on - year. The期末 inventory increased by 2.65 million tons to 12.5 million tons [110][111]. - Global sunflower seed production decreased slightly, and sunflower oil inventory continued to be reduced. In the 2025/26 period, the global sunflower seed production is expected to be 51.77 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons year - on - year, and the sunflower oil inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons to 2.28 million tons [136]. 3.3.5 Oils and Fats Demand - Global vegetable oil consumption is increasing year by year. In the 2025/26 period, the estimated consumption is 227.94 million tons, with edible consumption accounting for 71.54% and industrial consumption accounting for 28.00% [141]. - India's vegetable oil demand is increasing year by year, and the import volume is expected to be large in the first quarter of 2026 due to low inventory and Ramadan stocking demand [145]. - U.S. biodiesel production and sales decreased significantly in 2025, but the production is expected to increase in the future. The U.S. biodiesel policy is still uncertain, and it may increase the demand for 1.5 million tons of soybean oil [149][154]. - Indonesia's biodiesel demand is increasing, and the implementation of B50 is expected to increase the demand for 3 million tons of CPO, but it is unlikely to be implemented before 2027. The implementation of B45 may increase the demand for 1.6 million tons of CPO [158][159]. - Brazil's biodiesel blending ratio is continuously increasing, and the demand for soybean oil is expected to increase significantly. If the blending ratio increases to 16% in 2026, it is expected to increase the demand for 400,000 tons of soybean oil [163]. - The production of biodiesel in the EU increased slightly, but the use of vegetable oils decreased, and the use of UCO, animal fats, and other raw materials increased [166][167]. - The global use of vegetable oils for biodiesel production is continuously increasing [171]. 3.4 Domestic Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Supply - Demand Analysis - The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the import volume is expected to increase in the 2025/26 period. The import volume from January to November 2025 was 103.78 million tons, an increase of 6.89% year - on - year. The estimated import volume in the 2025/26 period is 112 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons year - on - year [176]. - The domestic palm oil import volume was low in 2025, and the inventory is expected to decline [187]. - The domestic rapeseed import volume decreased significantly in 2025, and the supply of rapeseed is expected to be tight in the 2025/26 period. The import volume from January to November 2025 was 2.4479 million tons, a decrease of 57.67% year - on - year [192]. - The inventory trends of the three major oils and fats are differentiated. As of the 51st week, the soybean oil inventory was 1.1235 million tons, an increase of 17.90% year - on - year; the palm oil inventory was 700,000 tons, an increase of 30.01% year - on - year; and the rapeseed oil inventory was 303,000 tons, a decrease of 27.65% year - on - year [197]. - The demand for protein meals is expected to decrease due to the reduction of pig and poultry farming capacity [201][206]. - The supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the inventory of rapeseed meal is continuously being reduced [209]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Supply: Globally, focus on whether the expected abundant South American soybean harvest is realized and whether the palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia can remain high. Domestically, focus on China - U.S. and China - Canada trade policies [213][214]. - Oils and Fats Demand: Globally, the consumption of oils and fats is increasing year by year. The growth of edible consumption mainly depends on India, and the growth of biodiesel consumption mainly depends on the biodiesel policies of Indonesia, the U.S., and Brazil [216]. - Protein Meal Demand: The demand for protein meals is expected to decrease due to the reduction of pig and poultry farming capacity. The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are mainly affected by external oilseed prices [219].