蛋白数据日报-20251229

Report Overview - Report Title: ITG Guomao Futures Data Daily - Report Date: December 29, 2025 - Researcher: Huang Xianglan - Investment Consultation Number: Z0021658 - Qualification Number: F03110419 1. Core Viewpoints - The domestic rumor of customs control on soybean imports is beneficial for near - month contracts and positive spreads. Attention should be paid to customs policy dynamics [8]. - US soybean exports are weak, and there is no obvious hype driver in South American weather. Brazilian premiums are expected to face pressure later. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, with an overall expectation of near - strong and far - weak [8]. - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect far - month supply [7][8]. - The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased, but recent downstream transactions are normal, and提货 performance is good [8]. 2. Industry Data Summaries 2.1 Basis Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on December 26, 2025: Dalian was 390 with a rise of 10; in different regions such as Rizhao (330, +10), Tianjin (350, +10), Zhangjiagang (340, - 500), Dongguan (290, - 10), Zhanjiang (310, - 30), and Fangcheng (310, - 10) [4]. - The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 76, down 32 [4]. 2.2 Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in the factory was 300, and the spot spread in the market was 399, down 9; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 559, up 12 [5]. - The RM1 - 5 spread was 68, down 16; the M3 - M5 spread and M1 - RM1 spread data were also presented [4][5]. 2.3 Supply - related Data - According to CONAB, the predicted output of the 25/26 Brazilian new crop is 177.6 million tons. As of December 5, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 90.3% [7]. - According to BAGE, as of December 3, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 4.7% [7]. - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, and the de - stocking of soybean meal is slow. The现货 supply pressure is still large, and it is expected to accelerate de - stocking from December to January [8]. 2.4 Demand - related Data - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand, but current breeding profits are in the red [7][8]. - The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased, and recent downstream transactions are normal, with good提货 performance [8]. 2.5 Other Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9815, with no change. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 150 cents per bushel, and the domestic import soybean spot crushing profit was 90 yuan per ton [5]. - The domestic soybean auction had a high premium, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction situations [7].