第一创业晨会纪要-20251229

Macroeconomic Group - In November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 6.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, but a decline of 1.8 percentage points compared to October, marking two consecutive months of decline [4] - The manufacturing sector saw a year-on-year growth of 5.0% from January to November, down 2.7 percentage points from October [4] - In November, the profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 13.1% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 5.5% in October, primarily due to the rise in PPI being concentrated upstream without transmission to downstream [4] Industry Overview - The upstream sector is experiencing differentiation, with poor performance in downstream industries and better results in the midstream [5] - Industries with higher year-on-year growth from January to November include non-ferrous metals, transportation equipment manufacturing, electronic equipment manufacturing, and automotive manufacturing [5] - Industries with lower year-on-year growth include coal, steel, furniture manufacturing, textile and apparel, paper, and pharmaceuticals [5] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Leading companies in lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, such as Hunan YN and Wanrun New Energy, have announced production halts, expected to reduce monthly output by approximately 20,000 to 55,000 tons, tightening market supply [12] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has rebounded over 50% since mid-year, currently exceeding 100,000 yuan per ton, constituting over 40% of the cost of lithium iron phosphate [12] - The supply-side expansion is constrained, with low willingness to expand production and increased quality thresholds limiting effective supply growth, while demand remains strong due to the high demand in new energy vehicles and energy storage [12] Consumer Group - The current operations of the company are still in an adjustment phase, with a high single-digit decline in all-channel sales for Q3 of FY2026 (September to November 2025) [14] - The management acknowledges pressure on the full-year net profit guidance, but deviations are manageable [14] - The core brand Nike has increased support for the Chinese market, helping the company clear old inventory and stabilize gross profit and cash flow [14]