原油周报（SC）：地缘风险因素扰动，国际油价宽幅波动-20251229

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ has suspended production increases. The long - term supply and demand of crude oil remain bearish. Short - term geopolitical situations are the main disturbances. Oil prices will still show an oscillating performance in the short term, but the long - term price center tends to decline [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply (Medium - Long Term): EIA slightly raised its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. OPEC and IEA data on OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' oil production in November showed different trends. Overall, the supply factor is rated as neutral [3] - Demand (Medium - Long Term): EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different adjustments to the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid demand growth rates in 2025 and 2026. The demand factor is rated as neutral [3] - Inventory (Short Term): In the week ending December 12, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased, while Cushing crude oil inventory decreased. Gasoline and distillate inventories also increased. The inventory factor is rated as neutral [3] - Oil - producing Countries' Policies (Medium - Long Term): At the December OPEC+ meeting, production was maintained unchanged until the end of 2026, and a new mechanism for evaluating production capacity was approved. The production of Saudi Arabia in November showed certain changes. This factor is rated as neutral [3] - Geopolitics (Short Term): The Russia - Ukraine conflict is complex, and the US has imposed economic sanctions and military deployments on Venezuela. This factor is rated as bullish [3] - Macro - finance (Short Term): The US GDP growth rate in the third quarter was high, but the fourth - quarter economic growth may face pressure. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January 2026 was 19.9%. This factor is rated as neutral [3] - Investment and Trading Strategies: The investment view is "oscillating". The trading strategies for both unilateral and arbitrage are to wait and see [3] Part Two: Futures Market Data - Market Review: Geopolitical risks have led to wide - range fluctuations in international oil prices. This week, oil prices rebounded and then fell. By December 26, the closing prices of WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil futures had increased to varying degrees [6] - Monthly Spread and Internal - External Spread: The near - month spread weakened, and the internal - external spread declined [9] - Forward Curve: Near - month pressure remains high [21] - Crack Spread: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene all declined [26][37] Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production: In November 2025, global crude oil production increased. Different institutions had different data on the production of OPEC and Non - OPEC countries. US weekly crude oil production decreased slightly, and the number of active drilling rigs increased [49][61][84] - Inventory: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while Cushing inventory increased. Northwest European crude oil inventory rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventory declined. In China, the inventory of various oil products showed certain changes [85][95][106] - Demand: In the US, gasoline implied demand increased significantly, and refinery operating rates remained high. In China, refinery capacity utilization increased slightly, and the refinery profit of major refineries decreased, while the gasoline and diesel crack spreads were stable [108][118][127] - Macro - finance: US Treasury yields rebounded, and the US dollar index weakened [139] - CFTC Position: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [148]