PVC周报：宏观情绪好转，盘面小幅反弹-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on PVC in the short - term is "oscillatory", with an amplitude of - 5% - 5% [3][89] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is affected by multiple factors. Supply is bearish as the fundamental situation of oversupply persists, with production slightly increasing due to reduced maintenance. Demand is also bearish as downstream demand enters the off - season, and although exports are rising, the overall demand remains weak. Inventory is bearish as social inventory increases. However, profit and valuation are bullish, and the macro - policy is positive, with a warming macro - sentiment leading to a small rebound in the market. In the short - term, PVC has no obvious drivers and is expected to oscillate [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has a narrow adjustment, and the supply - demand pattern is still oversupplied. The PVC production capacity utilization rate is 77.23%, with a 0.15% week - on - week decrease and a 3.39% year - on - year decrease. The utilization rate of calcium carbide method is 78.49% (0.75% week - on - week increase, 1.68% year - on - year decrease), and that of ethylene method is 74.28% (2.25% week - on - week decrease, 7.64% year - on - year decrease) [3] - Demand: Bearish. Downstream demand is in the off - season, with a decline in downstream start - up rates. The start - up rate of PVC pipe sample enterprises is 37.60% (0.20% week - on - week increase, 1.04% year - on - year increase), and that of PVC profile enterprises has a 0.74% week - on - week decrease. The export volume in October 2025 is 31.21 tons, with a single - month export volume decreasing by 9.91% month - on - month and increasing by 34.28% year - on - year, and a cumulative increase of 48.88% year - to - date [3] - Inventory: Bearish. The PVC social inventory has a 0.43% week - on - week increase to 106.11 tons, with a 31.92% year - on - year increase. The factory - warehouse inventory of PVC producers can be produced for 5.1 days, with a 3.77% week - on - week decrease [3] - Basis: Neutral. The basis has strengthened, currently at - 612 yuan/ton [3] - Profit: Bullish. The profits of both calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC have increased week - on - week. As of December 26, the average gross profit of calcium carbide method PVC producers is - 760 yuan/ton (223 yuan/ton increase week - on - week), and that of ethylene method PVC producers is - 336 yuan/ton (134 yuan/ton increase week - on - week) [3] - Valuation: Bullish. The price is at a historical low, and the valuation is low [3] - Macro - policy: Bullish. The macro - sentiment is positive, and the market has a small rebound [3] - Investment View: Oscillatory. In the short - term, PVC has no obvious drivers and is expected to oscillate [3] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, there is currently no strategy [3] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Market Review: The PVC powder market oscillated weakly during the week and rebounded strongly on Friday night. On the supply side, there are no new enterprises entering maintenance, but some enterprises maintain a low start - up rate due to cost pressure and environmental protection control. After the end of maintenance at some enterprises, production is expected to increase slightly, increasing supply pressure. On the demand side, the domestic downstream start - up rate continues to decline, with weak demand for hard products and a decline in the start - up rate of some soft products due to the rise in other raw material prices. In terms of exports, foreign trade exports mainly maintain a wait - and - see attitude. The PVC futures oscillated strongly during the week, with a positive macro - environment and less new global PVC production capacity in 2026, leading to an optimistic future expectation [7] - Price Difference on the Market: The price difference has widened, and PVC maintains a contango structure [9] 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production in Main Producing Regions: After the end of maintenance, the production in the northwest region has rebounded [36] - Exports: It is the seasonal off - season, and exports have slowed down. There is still room for export profits, but due to weak foreign demand and low - price competition, the room for volume expansion is limited [81]