冠通期货-宏观2026年报：美国中期选举，中国十五五开局

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the global economy advanced amidst turmoil. Overseas, Trump took office, and the Fed restarted interest - rate cuts, leading to a liquidity bull market. In China, the reshaping of confidence drove the re - evaluation of Chinese assets, and anti - involution sparked a new round of supply - side reform. In 2026, the resonance of the global political and technological cycles is expected to support risk assets, and the waves of energy transformation and AI investment will reshape the commodity pattern [6]. - From the US perspective, the mid - term elections are a key variable disturbing policy expectations. The US economy may move towards recovery under the dual - loose policy of finance and currency, and may even face overheating. From the Chinese perspective, in 2026, China's economy is expected to achieve qualitative improvement in a weak recovery. Fiscal policy will continue to be actively expanded, and monetary policy will remain moderately loose [7][8]. - In terms of asset allocation, equity assets are expected to remain optimistic, the bond market faces a complex environment, gold is still favored, and the exchange - rate market will maintain the status quo. However, risks such as "policy failure" and "expectation disappointment" need to be watched out for [16][17]. - In 2026, commodities are expected to experience a structural bull market in a volatile and differentiated manner, with traditional energy maintaining price resilience and strategic metals having strong demand [27][28]. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogues 2025 Market Review - Global Macroeconomic Environment: The world entered the Trump 2.0 era in 2025. The global economic recovery was pressured by tariff - trade shocks. Different countries had different economic performances. The US economy showed "external strength but internal weakness", China's economy was in a weak recovery and transformation, Germany's economy was dragged down by the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and Japan's economy faced political and inflationary pressures [62]. - Global Asset Performance: In 2025, global asset performance was volatile and differentiated. Equity assets generally rose, the US dollar index declined significantly, and commodities showed a pattern of agricultural weakness and industrial strength [48][50]. - Domestic Futures Market: In 2025, the domestic futures market showed a pattern of strong stocks, weak bonds, and differentiated commodities. The precious - metals sector performed strongly, while the energy and chemical sectors were under pressure [52]. 2026 Global Economic Outlook - Economic Growth: According to the IMF's report, global economic growth is expected to slow down from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. The US economic growth is expected to slow down moderately to 2.1%, and China's economic growth is expected to slow down from 4.8% in 2025 to 4.2% in 2026 [77]. - Inflation: Global inflation is expected to fall from 4.2% in 2025 to 3.7% in 2026. However, inflation in the US remains stubborn, while China's inflation remains low [77]. - Fiscal Policy: Global fiscal space is narrowing. In 2026, China and the US are expected to jointly implement fiscal expansion. The US fiscal deficit and debt are expected to continue to expand, while China needs to balance short - term stimulus and medium - long - term sustainability [72]. US Economic Situation and Policy - Economic Situation: The US economy shows "external strength but internal weakness". The depletion of residents' excess savings, the slowdown of corporate earnings, and the high valuation of the stock market all pose challenges. Inflation has eased but remains sticky [7][115]. - Policy Expectations: In 2026, Trump is likely to focus on domestic affairs for the mid - term elections, implementing a "dual - loose" policy of finance and currency. The Fed may change its chairman, and the new chairman's policy stance will have an impact on the economy and the market [92][103]. Chinese Economic Situation and Policy - Economic Situation: In 2026, China's economy is expected to achieve qualitative improvement in a weak recovery. The economy will face challenges such as real - estate drag and external trade protectionism, but anti - involution policies and demand improvement are expected to drive a moderate recovery in CPI and a narrowing of PPI decline [8][230]. - Policy Outlook: Fiscal policy will continue to be actively expanded, with the central government increasing leverage to support domestic demand and resolve local - debt risks. Monetary policy will remain moderately loose to maintain liquidity and balance risk prevention and price recovery [8][230]. Fed's Policy and Impact - 2025 Policy: In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, with a total reduction of 75 basis points. The Fed also adjusted its economic outlook, raising GDP growth expectations and slightly lowering inflation expectations [239][245]. - 2026 Expectations: In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates once. The change of the Fed chairman will be a significant event, and different candidates' policy stances will have different impacts on the market [252][267]. Commodity Market - Pricing Logic Evolution: Since 2022, the traditional negative correlation between the US dollar and commodities has been broken. The pricing logic of commodities is evolving into a complex three - dimensional game [282]. - 2026 Market Outlook: In 2026, the commodity market is expected to experience a structural bull market. Traditional energy will maintain price resilience, and strategic metals such as copper and silver will have strong demand [288][432]. "Anti - Involution" Policy - Policy Background: In 2025, China proposed anti - involution policies to address issues such as over - capacity and low - price competition [180]. - Policy Impact: In the short term, the policy will boost market sentiment. In the long term, it will promote industry reshuffle and improve the profitability of leading enterprises. However, the sustainability of the policy effect depends on demand - side support [372]. Asset Allocation in 2026 - Equity Assets: A - shares are expected to continue to be optimistic, with valuation recovery and earnings improvement. The market is expected to have a structural market around the "15th Five - Year Plan", and the style may switch to cyclical sectors in the second half of the year [407]. - Fixed - Income Assets: In a rising risk - appetite environment, fixed - income assets are difficult to stand out [398]. - Gold: Gold is expected to enter a stage of high - level volatility. It should be held as a core asset to hedge against macro - uncertainty [414][415]. - Silver: In the long term, silver benefits from interest - rate cuts, economic recovery, and energy transformation. In the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the divergence between the fundamentals and the capital side [419]. - Commodities: In 2026, a new structural commodity bull market may emerge, with a focus on silver, copper, coking coal, and new - energy varieties [398][432].