聚酯周报：市场预期强化，聚酯偏强运行-20251229

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the polyester industry is "oscillating", with an expected upward trend mainly driven by the supply side [3] Core View of the Report - The polyester market is expected to run strongly, influenced by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies. The PX market is supported by the expectation of supply tightening in Q1 2026, and the polyester load remains high due to new device production. However, there are also some negative factors, such as the weakening of some product profits [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of supply tightening in Q1 2026. The PX - naphtha spread has expanded to $360, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has risen to $244, encouraging PX producers to actively purchase MX. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November [3] - Demand: The commissioning of new polyester devices keeps the polyester load at a high level, with high PTA consumption. The market's willingness to stockpile has increased, and the basis has strengthened rapidly [3] - Inventory: The PTA port inventory has decreased by 60,000 tons, and mainstream polyester factories are selling spot goods [3] - Basis: The PTA basis has continued to strengthen, and PTA profits have been significantly repaired [3] - Profit: The spread between PX and naphtha is $360, and the PTA processing fee has expanded to a low level of about 360 yuan [3] - Valuation: The PTA price has significantly rebounded, exceeding 5,000 yuan. The reforming unit profit has recovered, and the load of overseas PX units has increased [3] - Macro Policy: The National Conference on Industry and Information Technology emphasized improving industry governance efficiency, accelerating the formulation and implementation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" series of plans in the industrial and information technology fields, and strengthening the coordination of industry with fiscal, tax, and financial policies [3] - Investment View: Driven by the supply side, it is expected to be mainly strong, showing an "oscillating" trend [3] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see [3] PART TWO: Overview of Oil Product Fundamentals - Crude Oil: The crude oil price remains weak [5] - Gasoline: In the US, gasoline inventories are accumulating, and demand is seasonally weakening. Gasoline cracking profits have slightly declined. The global crude oil and aromatic raw material markets are under pressure. European gasoline prices have weakened rapidly since early December, and the Nigerian Dangote refinery's upcoming shutdown may provide export opportunities for European gasoline and reformate rich in aromatics [9][14][29] PART THREE: Overview of Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals - Aromatic Hydrocarbons - Overall Situation: The overall crude oil and petrochemical raw material market is weak, and refining profits have turned negative again. The reformate market remains structurally tight, and South Korean refineries' operating rates have not significantly recovered [49] - PX: The PX supply has increased, but the expectation is strong. The PX - naphtha spread has expanded to $360, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has risen to $244, driving PX producers to purchase MX. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the polyester load remains high [33][72] - MX: The overseas MX market is weakening, affected by weak energy prices and seasonal decline in gasoline demand. The MX - naphtha spread has expanded to $128, and the PX - MX spread has risen to $240. The market expects an oversupply of Asian MX in 2026 [56][63] - Toluene: The toluene price has declined, and the disproportionation profit has expanded [57] - Aromatic Hydrocarbon Blending: The aromatic hydrocarbon blending price spread has shrunk, and the gasoline reforming and aromatic hydrocarbon reforming profits have slightly strengthened [64][72] PART FOUR: Overview of Polyester Fundamentals - Ethylene Glycol: Overseas ethylene glycol device maintenance plans have increased. The ethylene glycol port inventory in East China remains at 750,000 tons. With the continuous decline of coal prices and the commissioning of new devices, the supply pressure is increasing. The return of coal - based ethylene glycol devices exerts great pressure on the market. Policy changes may support the ethylene glycol price [87] - Gasoline: Asian gasoline profits remain strong [89] - Polyester: The polyester continues to maintain a high load, but demand is gradually weakening. The commodity sentiment is high, and policy changes may affect the polyester industry [98][108]