股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)：市场流动性充裕，股指偏强运行-20251229

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market's "slow bull" pattern is entering the second half. Policy support, marginal improvement in inflation, and the role of Central Huijin are expected to boost the stock index in 2026. For futures traders, the discount structure of index futures can be used to enhance the winning rate of long strategies [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Economic and Corporate Earnings: The single - month industrial enterprise profit in November declined, with intensified industry profit differentiation. From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased slightly by 0.1% year - on - year, but the single - month profit in November decreased by 13.1% year - on - year. Some industries had profit growth, while others declined [4] - Macro Policy: On December 26, the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund was officially launched, funded by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, with 100 billion yuan from the central government and encouraging social capital participation at the regional and sub - fund levels [4] - Liquidity: Last week, the market trading volume increased significantly, and the net inflow of stock - type and cross - border ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 38.069 billion yuan, with 49.3 billion yuan flowing into CSI A500 - related ETFs [4] - Trading Strategy: It is advisable to go long on a single - side basis, and attention should be paid to overseas geopolitical factors [4] 2. Stock Index Market Review - Index Performance: Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.95% to 4657.2; the SSE 50 rose 1.37% to 3045.4; the CSI 500 rose 4.03% to 7458.8; the CSI 1000 rose 3.76% to 7605.5 [6] - Industry Index: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, non - ferrous metals (6.4%), national defense and military industry (6%), power equipment (5.4%), electronics (5%), and building materials (4.6%) led the gains, while social services (-1.1%), banks (-1%), food and beverages (-0.6%), media (-0.2%), and pharmaceutical biology (-0.2%) led the losses [10] - Futures Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures decreased by 34.24%, 39.30%, 25.37%, and 27.04% respectively, while the open interests increased by 7.35%, 9.34%, 15.82%, and 7.51% respectively [12] - Cross - Variety Spread: The spread of CSI 300 - SSE 50 is at the 94.9% historical quantile level; the spread of CSI 1000 - CSI 500 is at the 31.4% historical quantile level; the ratio of CSI 300/CSI 1000 is at the 35.6% historical quantile level; the ratio of SSE 50/CSI 1000 is at the 30.5% historical quantile level [20] 3. Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - Funding and Macro - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 422.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 34.8 billion yuan. Next week, 622.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [26] - Market Trading Volume and Margin Trading: As of December 25, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 2.53748 trillion yuan, an increase of 41.41 billion yuan from the previous week. The ratio of margin trading purchases to the total market trading volume was 12.6%, at the 98.7% quantile level in the past decade [32] 4. Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - China's Macro Indicators: In November 2025, GDP at constant prices was 0.0, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year - on - year, fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year in cumulative terms, and real estate investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year [35] - Corporate Profitability: The year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to the parent of major broad - based indices and Shenwan primary industry indices showed different trends, and the ROE (TTM) also varied [50][51] 5. Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driven - Macro Policy: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, and many regions have optimized real - estate policies [55][56][64] 6. Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - US Economic Data: In November, the US manufacturing PMI was 48.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.6%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The unemployment rate was 4.6%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was 64,000 [66][70] - Trump's Policies: Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have led to trade frictions between the United States and many countries, including China [72][74][76] 7. Stock Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - Index Valuation: As of December 26, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.1 times, 11.8 times, 33.8 times, and 46.4 times respectively, at the 82%, 85.1%, 74.9%, and 66.9% quantile levels since October 2014 [80] - Sector Valuation: Different sectors have different price - to - earnings ratios and price - to - book ratios, and their historical quantile levels also vary [85]