国贸期货黑色金属周报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal market is in a state of shock and stability, waiting for new drivers. The steel market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with potential iron - water production stabilization in January. The coking coal and coke market is still weak, with increased game for the fourth round of price cuts. The iron ore market has a stable iron - water production and rising port inventory, and the price range is expected to be limited [3][5][68][119] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - Supply: Iron - water production decline narrows, with a weekly increase of 0.03 to 226.58wt. Scrap steel daily consumption decreases slightly. Steel mill production profits improve slightly in December compared to November. There may be some resumptions of production in January, but the scale will not be large [5] - Demand: From an industrial data perspective, the supply - demand structure is weak. From a market perception perspective, speculative demand is light. After January, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils improves slightly, medium - and cold - rolled plates are stable, and building material demand is weaker than the same period [5] - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products continues to decline, mainly due to the stable decline in steel production. The inventory - to - sales ratio of rebar and wire rod is stable, hot - rolled coils improve, and medium - and cold - rolled plates remain stable. The inventory of plate products is slow to decline [5] - Basis/Spread: The basis of hot - rolled coils shrinks, and that of rebar remains the same. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 122; the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is - 13, a weekly decrease of 14 [5] - Profit: Steel mill profits rise slightly, but the profitability is still low. The profitability rate of steel mills is 37.23%, a weekly increase of 1.3% [5] - Valuation: The basis of hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that of rebar, suitable for rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage. The industrial relative valuation is neutral [5] - Macro and Risk Preference: Commodities have shown good performance recently. The black metal market has signs of stabilization [5] - Investment View: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. Unilateral trading can follow a shock - based approach. After January, the market capital is expected to be more abundant, and the cash - and - carry arbitrage of hot - rolled coils can be rolled [5] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Use a range - based approach. Arbitrage: Consider widening the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar when it is below 150. Cash - and - carry: Roll the cash - and - carry arbitrage of hot - rolled coils [5] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Demand: The steel market has weak supply and demand, which is unfavorable to furnace materials. However, the weakening trend slows down, and inventory is still being depleted. The profitability rate of steel mills rises, and iron - water production shows signs of stabilization [68] - Coking Coal Supply: Some coal mines reduce production after completing their annual plans in mid - December. Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high, and port inventory exceeds 3.8 million tons. Seaborne coal prices continue to rise, and the price gap between domestic and foreign markets widens [68] - Coke Supply: Coking production is stable, and profits are around the break - even point. There is still a game for the fourth round of price cuts [68] - Inventory: All links of coking coal and coke have inventory accumulation. Downstream procurement is cautious [68] - Basis/Spread: The third - round price increase of coke has been implemented, and there is an expectation for the fourth round. The Mongolian coal basis cost is around 1100 [68] - Profit: The profitability rate of steel mills is 37.23% (a weekly increase of 1.30%), and coking profit is - 18 (a weekly decrease of 34) [68] - Summary: The black metal sector is in shock, and coking coal and coke are still weak. The market is expected to be in shock, and the willingness of funds to participate is weak. Pay attention to the resumption of production of domestic coal mines in January [68] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Wait and see. Arbitrage: Wait and see [68] 3.3 Iron Ore - Supply: The shipping volume rebounds by 39.5 tons per day to 5.13 million tons per day. The arrival volume in China rebounds by 18,000 tons per day [119] - Demand: Steel mill iron - water production remains stable, and the profitability ratio rises slightly. According to the maintenance plan, iron - water production is expected to be stable, with a demand for increase in January [119] - Inventory: The daily average port - clearing volume of 47 ports decreases slightly, but the arrival pressure is large, and port inventory rises by 1.1406 million tons, hitting a new high for the year [119] - Profit: Steel mill profits are at a low level [119] - Valuation: The short - term valuation is neutral [119] - Summary: Iron - water production shows signs of bottoming out and stabilizing. Under the influence of supply and demand, port inventory will continue to rise, and the upward pressure on price is obvious. The price range is expected to be limited [119] - Investment View: Neutral [119] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Wait and see. Arbitrage: Wait and see [119]