国债周报：债期小幅修复-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term: Due to relatively stable and loose capital expectations, short - term bonds may be more stable, while long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may fluctuate more. The pattern of bonds having a ceiling and a floor is difficult to break, and the ten - year spot bond yield may remain in the range of 1.75% - 1.85%. Allocate funds to focus on medium - and short - term maturities and high - grade credit bonds, and trading funds can focus on band trading opportunities for ultra - long - term maturities [9]. - Medium - and long - term: Insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. Deflation is likely to continue, which is favorable for bond futures. The coordinated increase of monetary and fiscal policies and the low - interest - rate environment make it difficult for bond yields to rise significantly [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Market performance: Last week, the treasury bond futures market showed a volatile pattern of first falling and then rising. The significant decline of 30 - year treasury bond futures at the beginning of the week was due to the concentrated selling of trading volumes. The central bank's net liquidity injection ensured the stability of short - term funds in the inter - bank market, which was the basis for the market sentiment to pick up later in the week. Market rumors also promoted the short - term repair of treasury bond futures. The linkage effect between the bond market and other markets weakened, and the performance of bond futures was stronger than expected [5]. - Performance details: Different treasury bond futures contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, TL2603 had a closing price of 112.960 and a weekly increase of 0.27%, with a trading volume of 55,995,300 and a decrease of 9,814,400 in trading volume compared to the previous week [6]. - Investment suggestions: For allocation funds, focus on medium - and short - term maturities and high - grade credit bonds; for trading funds, pay attention to band trading opportunities for ultra - long - term maturities [9]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking The report presents multiple charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (volume and price), medium - term lending facilities (volume and price), deposit - type pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, and various bond - related interest rates, but no specific analysis text is provided [12][14][15]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking The report shows data on treasury bond futures basis, net basis, internal rate of return (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year contracts, but no specific analysis text is provided [43][50][58][64].