南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告：年底降雨回归，大部分地区土壤湿度暂时性好转

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - A weak La Niña phenomenon has formed and is expected to last until early 2026, currently having limited impact on palm oil - producing areas [1]. - Recent rainfall in the Malay Archipelago has increased, with significant improvement in soil moisture in southern Peninsular Malaysia and some areas in Indonesia. However, the rainfall is not persistent, and there is a risk of soil drying in 2026 [1]. - Short - term catastrophic weather disturbances are insufficient, but continuous attention should be paid to areas with low soil moisture. If the situation does not improve, it may affect palm oil production in the second half of next year [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 El Niño and Southern Oscillation Index - Since October, the Southern Oscillation Index has exceeded the threshold of 1, and the El Niño index was - 0.55 as of the end of November, indicating the formation of a La Niña phenomenon [1]. 3.2 Precipitation Forecast in Producing Areas - Recent rainfall has improved, and rainfall in southern Peninsular Malaysia has increased [3]. 3.3 Soil Moisture in Producing Areas - Indonesia - In Jambi, soil moisture has improved year - on - year at the end of the year [22]. - In West Kalimantan, soil moisture has increased, but cumulative precipitation is lower year - on - year [28]. - In Central Kalimantan, the soil moisture level is higher year - on - year [34]. - In East Kalimantan, precipitation is abundant, and the soil is moist [41]. - In Riau, rainfall has slightly improved at the end of the year, but soil moisture is still slightly behind the same period in previous years [47]. - In South Sumatra, soil moisture is currently low, but it is expected to exceed last year's level at the end of the year [54]. - In North Sumatra, rainfall is limited at the end of the year, and soil moisture remains low [58]. - Malaysia - In Johor, rainfall has increased, and soil moisture has improved [65]. - In Pahang, rainfall has returned to a low level, and the increase in soil moisture is insufficient [71]. - In Perak, rainfall has decreased at the end of the year, and soil moisture has declined [78]. - In Sabah, cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [83]. - In Sarawak, cumulative rainfall is insufficient, and soil moisture is the same as last year [89].