原料及政策压力下的沥青供给格局重塑：冠通期货-沥青2026年报

Report Information - Report Title: Guantong Futures - Bitumen 2026 Annual Report - Reshaping of Bitumen Supply Pattern under Raw Material and Policy Pressure - Analyst: Su Miaoda - Release Date: December 29, 2025 - Report Institution: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - In 2025, the overall weighted center of bitumen prices moved down, mainly ranging from 2,900 to 3,900 yuan/ton. The bitumen/crude oil ratio increased, with a main range of 6.0 - 7.8. In 2026, bitumen prices are expected to decline initially and then rebound. It is recommended to go long on the bitumen crack spread after crude oil prices rise to a high level. Regarding the basis, it is expected to be strongly volatile in Q1 and weakly volatile in Q4 [4]. - In terms of cost, the overall supply of crude oil exceeds demand. Prices are expected to decline in Q1 and gradually bottom - out and recover in Q2. Bitumen prices mainly follow crude oil price fluctuations. Pay attention to the supply and demand of crude oil, especially the export of heavy oil from Russia and Venezuela [4]. - On the supply side, affected by raw materials and capacity clearance, bitumen production is expected to remain low, and the supply market will become more concentrated [4]. - In terms of demand, the focus of roads will shift to the construction, upgrading, and maintenance of rural roads. The real estate market is in the process of bottom - out recovery and cannot strongly support bitumen demand. However, as the first year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, policy support is expected to increase bitumen demand, with a cautious and optimistic outlook [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Bitumen Price Trends - In 2025, the weighted center of bitumen prices moved down, mainly between 2,900 - 3,900 yuan/ton, and the bitumen/crude oil ratio was in the range of 6.0 - 7.8. The price fluctuated throughout the year due to factors such as crude oil price changes, inventory levels, and geopolitical situations [4][6]. Bitumen Spot Prices - Since Q2 2025, the market price of bitumen in South China has declined more than in other regions due to new production capacity and price cuts by local refineries [12]. - In 2025, the basis in Shandong was high from March to July, then declined after August. In December, the basis of the bitumen 02 contract was around 0 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. It is expected to be strongly volatile in Q1 2026 and weakly volatile in Q4 [20][21]. Bitumen持仓及仓单情况 - From January to October 2025, the net position of the top 20 bitumen traders fluctuated between long and short, and has been in a net short position since November. Warehouse receipts decreased to a low level, while factory warehouse receipts rose to a neutral level since mid - December [24]. Diluted Bitumen - Currently, the port inventory of diluted bitumen is at a low level. Due to the tense situation in Venezuela, the export of diluted bitumen to China may be restricted, resulting in a potential shortage of about 600,000 barrels per day of crude oil supply. Pay attention to the development of the Venezuelan situation and whether OPEC+ production increases can offset the impact [29]. Bitumen Capacity and Production - In 2024, bitumen production capacity decreased by 220 tons to 7.87 million tons. In 2025, it further decreased to 7.705 million tons. In 2026, backward production capacity in Northeast and Northwest China is expected to be phased out [34]. - Due to changes in fuel oil consumption deduction policies and import tariff rate increases, refineries without crude oil quotas are facing large losses, and market share is shifting to refineries with quotas [34]. Bitumen Production - In November 2025, bitumen production decreased by 13.63% month - on - month to 2.238 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.56%. From January to November, the cumulative production was 26.401 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.76% [42]. Bitumen Apparent Consumption and Shipment Volume - In October 2025, bitumen apparent consumption decreased by 2.92% month - on - month to 2.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.37%. From January to October, the cumulative apparent consumption was 26.7259 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.44% [47]. - As of the week of December 19, the national bitumen shipment volume decreased by 3.52% month - on - month to 244,500 tons, at a neutral level [47]. Bitumen开工率与利润 - As of the week of December 19, the bitumen operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month to 27.6%, 0.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, remaining at a low level in recent years. Currently, the spot profit of bitumen is still in a loss state [52]. Bitumen Capacity Distribution and Maintenance Devices - Shandong has the largest bitumen production capacity, accounting for 31.5%. Other regions such as East China (excluding Shandong), North China, and South China each account for more than 10% [57]. - Many enterprises have shut down or switched production due to losses in bitumen production margins [57]. Bitumen Import and Export - From January to November 2025, the cumulative bitumen import was 3.547 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. The cumulative export was 584,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.7%. The net import is at a low level [60]. Bitumen Downstream - Road bitumen accounts for more than 70% of bitumen consumption, but its consumption share is gradually decreasing. In 2025, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased year - on - year [64]. - Bitumen waterproofing membranes account for 14% of bitumen downstream demand. Due to the continuous decline in real - estate new construction and environmental protection pressure, the consumption volume and share have slightly decreased [70]. - The growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure has been declining, and traditional infrastructure is difficult to maintain high - speed growth [74]. - The focus of road construction will shift to rural roads, which cannot strongly support bitumen demand. The shortage of funds restricts the start of road bitumen projects [80]. - In November 2025, the new social financing increased by 248.85 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.97 billion yuan. The scissors gap between M1 and M2 widened for two consecutive months [84]. - From January to October 2025, local government new special bonds totaled 3.9805 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.75%. Since August, bond issuance has slowed down, and the proportion flowing into road construction has decreased, restricting bitumen demand [88]. - As of December 19, the operating rates of road - modified bitumen, waterproofing membranes, and shoe - material - modified bitumen in the bitumen downstream were 24.00%, 27.00%, and 22.14% respectively, lower than the six - year average [95]. Bitumen Inventory - In 2025, both bitumen factory and social inventories showed a trend of rising first and then falling. As of the week of December 19, the factory inventory was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42% and a year - on - year increase of 1.30%. The social inventory was 1.029 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 16.27% [100].