冠通期货：原油2026年报：供应过剩仍在，原油价格寻找底部

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Views - In 2025, crude oil prices showed a weak oscillation. Brent spot prices dropped from $77 per barrel at the beginning of the year to $63 per barrel currently, a decline of 18.18%. Looking ahead to 2026, the overall supply of crude oil is expected to exceed demand, and prices will decline in Q1. Brent crude may fall below the lowest point in 2025. [4] - In 2026, on the supply side, OPEC+ will take a flexible approach to production increases. Non-OPEC+ supplies from countries like Brazil and Canada are expected to increase by about 1.15 million barrels per day. On the demand side, due to weak global economic recovery and new energy substitution, the growth rate of crude oil demand in 2026 is expected to be 1.1 million barrels per day. [4] - Low oil prices will suppress crude oil production. With Trump's economic stimulus and the arrival of the peak consumption season for crude oil, prices are expected to gradually bottom out and rebound in Q2. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Domestic Crude Oil Price Trends - In 2025, crude oil prices showed a weak oscillation. Brent spot prices dropped from $77 per barrel at the beginning of the year to $63 per barrel, a decline of 18.18%. The internal and external price spreads oscillated within a range throughout the year. [12] Crude Oil Supply Surplus - In 2025, global crude oil supply increased by 3.01 million barrels per day year-on-year to 106.18 million barrels per day, while demand increased by 1.14 million barrels per day year-on-year to 103.9 million barrels per day, resulting in a supply surplus of 2.24 million barrels per day. EIA predicts a surplus of 2.26 million barrels per day in 2026. [22] Crude Oil Production - OPEC+ gradually lifted production cuts in 2025. OPEC's crude oil production in October was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and in November it decreased by 1,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 28.48 million barrels per day. OPEC+ production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 43.06 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.42 million barrels per day compared to the beginning of the year. [28] - Russia's sustainable crude oil production capacity has been declining. In October, the US imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, which account for about half of Russia's oil exports. However, Russia may reduce the impact of sanctions through various means. [35] - Iran's crude oil production decreased from 3.278 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year to 3.221 million barrels per day in November. Venezuela's production increased from 913,000 barrels per day at the beginning of the year to 934,000 barrels per day in November. [39] - In 2025, US oil drilling rigs decreased, but production efficiency increased. US crude oil production remained stable at around 13.5 million barrels per day and reached a record high in November. It is expected to decrease by 80,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day in 2026. [43] - Non-OPEC+ countries such as Canada, Brazil, and Guyana are important growth points for crude oil production in 2026. EIA predicts that non-OPEC countries will increase production by 1.13 million barrels per day in total. [47] China's Crude Oil Market - From January to November 2025, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 4.0% year-on-year to 675.07 million tons, and imports increased by 3.2% year-on-year to 521.87 million tons. The non-state trade import quota for 2026 is 257 million tons, the same as in 2025. [52] - In 2025, China's major refinery operating rates followed seasonal fluctuations, with higher rates in Q3 and lower rates in Q4. Shandong independent refineries had lower operating rates, between 45% - 55%. [57] - Affected by economic slowdown and new energy substitution, the growth rate of China's refined oil products slowed down. From January to October, the apparent consumption of aviation kerosene increased slightly, while gasoline and diesel consumption decreased. [62] - From January to October 2025, China's exports of diesel and gasoline decreased, while aviation kerosene exports increased. [62] - From January to October 2025, China's natural gas heavy truck sales and new energy passenger vehicle sales increased, and their market shares also increased. It is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will further increase in 2026. [67] US Crude Oil Market - As of the week ending December 12, US crude oil imports decreased by 64,000 barrels per day week-on-week to 6.525 million barrels per day, and exports increased by 655,000 barrels per day to 4.664 million barrels per day. The average net imports in 2025 decreased by 9.81% year-on-year. [72] - In November 2025, the US core CPI and overall CPI increased at a slower pace. The Fed cut interest rates three times in 2025, and the market has different expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026. [77] - In 2025, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US first increased and then decreased. It is expected that the cracking spreads of refined oil products in Europe and the US will have greater elasticity in 2026. [81][86] - In 2025, US gasoline and diesel demand decreased year-on-year. EIA predicts that US oil consumption demand will decrease by 10,000 barrels per day to 20.58 million barrels per day in 2026. [92] - In 2025, the operating rate of US refineries was relatively high, and the crude oil input volume also increased. After the autumn maintenance, the operating rate and input volume recovered quickly. [97] - As of the week ending December 12, US crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and refined oil inventories increased. The strategic petroleum reserve increased for 21 consecutive weeks. [102][107][112] Global Demand and Inventory - In 2025, India's oil demand increased slightly, while Europe's decreased slightly. [117][122] - The IMF predicts that the global economic growth rate will slow down in 2026. Emerging markets and developing economies will also see a decline in growth rates, while developed economies will remain stable. [124] - Different institutions have different predictions for global crude oil demand growth in 2026. EIA, IEA, and OPEC have different views on the growth rates in 2025 and 2026. [128] - EIA predicts that the inventory of OECD commercial crude oil and other liquids will continue to increase until Q4 2026, and the global crude oil inventory has returned to the level since 2021. [133] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Iran conflict have affected the crude oil market, but most of the time, the impact on supply and transportation is not substantial, and the market returns to fundamental pricing after short-term disturbances. [137] - In 2025, the situation in Venezuela, the progress of Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and the possibility of Israel attacking Iran again are the main geopolitical factors affecting the crude oil market. [137]