集运指数欧线周报（EC）：提涨落地不佳航司继续宣涨1月运价-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The European container shipping market shows a trend of "simultaneous strengthening of spot and futures prices". The freight rate has rebounded for multiple consecutive weeks, with both spot and futures prices rising steadily. Shipping companies are strongly willing to control cabin space and support prices. The demand side benefits from pre - Spring Festival stocking and restocking needs, leading to an improvement in cabin loading rates. On the supply side, empty sailings have decreased, and effective capacity has tightened. The Red Sea situation has marginally eased, with some shipping companies testing re - entry into the market, but overall caution remains. In the short term, the freight rate may peak in early January, and the market faces adjustment pressure. Future attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the progress of re - entry into the market [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Spot Freight Rate: It is a positive factor. In the Gemini Alliance, MSK's freight rate in the second week of January rose to $2540/FEU, a $40 increase compared to the opening, with the overall offline loading rate rising; HPL - SPOT's price in the first half of January dropped from $3535/FEU by $500 to $3035/FEU, and there is an expectation of a price increase back to $3535/FEU in the second half of January. In the OCEAN Alliance, OOCL's freight rate in the first half of January remained flat compared to the previous period, at $3180 - 3230/FEU, and CMA's freight rate rose slightly from $3245/FEU to $3293/FEU. In the MSC&PA Alliance, ONE has an online price increase expectation of $2835/FEU in the second half of January, consistent with the announced increase in the first half. The offline FAK quote in the first half of January was $2800/FEU, a $400 increase compared to the end of December, and YML's offline quote is $2800/FEU, with special prices available for increased volume [3] - Political and Economic Factors: They are neutral. Houthi armed leaders warned of an "inevitable" new round of conflict with Israel, and criticized Arab countries seeking normalization of relations with Israel. Ukrainian President Zelensky hopes to reach a framework agreement to end the war when meeting with US President Trump, and is willing to submit a cease - fire plan to a referendum if Russia agrees to at least 60 days of cease - fire. US President Trump plans to announce multiple major measures regarding the Gaza issue in early January, but the next step depends on his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu [3] - Capacity Supply: It is neutral. The average weekly capacity deployment in October was 245,000 TEU, 265,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [3] - Demand: It is a positive factor. At the end of 2025, the demand for European container shipping remained strong, showing a super - seasonal recovery. Driven by the extended pre - Spring Festival stocking window in 2026 and the release of European importers' restocking needs, the booking volume continued to grow, and the fleet loading rate remained high. Coupled with the pre - adjustment of the supply chain under geopolitical situations, the enthusiasm of shippers to ship goods increased, supporting the continuous rise of freight rates [3] - Investment View: It is "oscillating". The trading strategy is to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and international macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - Spot Market: The report presents the price trends of European line indices, US - West line indices, and US - East line indices from 2023 to 2025 through charts, but no specific data analysis is provided [6] 3.3 Static Capacity - Order Volume: The report shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships of different loading capacities from 2015 to 2025 through multiple charts, including feeder container ships, intermediate container ships, and large - capacity container ships [11] - Delivery Volume: The delivery volume and delivery volume by loading capacity of container ships from 2020 to 2025 are presented, including different types of container ships such as feeder and post - Panamax [14] - Demolition Volume: The demolition volume and demolition volume by loading capacity of container ships from 2020 to 2025 are shown, covering various container ship types [15] - Future Delivery: The future delivery volume of container ships from 2023 to 2029 is presented, with breakdowns by different time periods and loading capacities [20] - Ship - Breaking Price: The ship - breaking prices of container ships of different loading capacities from 2019 to 2025 are presented, along with the new - building price index and year - on - year change of container ships [27] - Second - Hand Ship Price: The second - hand ship price index and the second - hand ship prices of container ships of different loading capacities and ages from 2015 to 2025 are presented [33] - Existing Capacity of Container Ships: The existing capacity, capacity by loading capacity, proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, average age, and average age at ship - breaking of container ships are presented through multiple charts, showing the development and status of the container ship fleet from 2015 to 2025 [42] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - Ship Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports): The total capacity deployment, PA + MSC capacity deployment, GEMINI capacity deployment, OCEAN capacity deployment, and MSC capacity deployment from week 13 to week 28 are presented through charts [57] - Desulfurization Tower Installation: The situation of container ships with installed and being - installed desulfurization towers, including the capacity in thousands of TEU, the number of ships, and the proportion, is presented, along with the average age and duration of the retrofit and the average speed of container ships [67] - Idle Capacity: The idle capacity, idle capacity by loading capacity, proportion of idle capacity, and the situation of hot - idle and desulfurization - tower - retrofitted container ships are presented through multiple charts [75]