国贸期货蛋白数据日报-20251229

Group 1: Report Core View - The domestic rumor of customs control on soybean imports is bullish for near - term contracts and positive spreads. Attention should be paid to customs policy dynamics. US soybean exports are weak, there is no obvious weather - driven speculation in South America, and Brazilian premiums are expected to face pressure later. M05 is expected to be relatively weak, with an overall expectation of near - term strength and far - term weakness [7][8] - In terms of supply, the predicted 25/26 Brazilian new - crop soybean production will reach 177.6 million tons. As of December 5th, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 90.3%. As of December 3rd, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 4.7%. There are no obvious short - term weather problems. There are concerns about domestic soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year due to rumored customs delays, and domestic imported soybeans have started to be auctioned [7] - In terms of demand, short - term high livestock and poultry inventories support feed demand, but current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies may affect long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased, and recent downstream transactions are normal with good提货 performance [7][8] - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, the pace of soybean meal inventory reduction is slow, and the pressure of spot supply is still high. It is expected that inventory will be reduced more quickly from December to January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has increased this week [7][8] Group 2: Data Summary Basis Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis, in Dalian it is 390 (up 10), in Rizhao 330 (up 10), in Tianjin 350 (up 10), in Zhangjiagang 340 (down 500), in Dongguan 290 (down 10), in Zhanjiang 310 (down 30), and in Fangcheng 310 (down 10). The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong is 76 (down 32) [4] Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal (factory) is 300, and the spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal on the main contract is 399 (down 9) [5] Other Data - The exchange rate of US dollars to RMB is 6.9815 (unchanged), the Brazilian soybean CNF premium is 150 (cents per bushel), and the Brazilian soybean crushing margin on the futures market is 90 yuan per ton [5] - As of relevant dates, Brazilian soybean sowing rate is 90.3%, and Argentine soybean sowing progress is 4.7% [7]