利率周报（2025.12.22-2025.12.28）：2026年债市行情可能好于预期-20251229

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In 2026, the economy may continue the weak recovery trend, with the old and new driving forces differentiating more significantly under the overall pressure. Infrastructure and real estate may continue to drag down the economy. The central bank will increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment, and the monetary policy will remain moderately loose, promoting the social comprehensive financing cost to run at a low level and promoting a reasonable recovery of prices. The probability of making long positions in the bond market is high, and the bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected [2][75]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - In November, the total bond custody scale increased by 1.48 trillion yuan month - on - month to 178.2 trillion yuan. The increase was mainly due to the growth of the custody scale of national bonds and local government bonds, with commercial banks being the main buyers. Generalized funds mainly increased their holdings of financial bonds [2][8]. - The fourth - quarter regular meeting of the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee in 2025 emphasized increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment, promoting a reasonable recovery of prices, and promoting the social comprehensive financing cost to run at a low level. The meeting removed the content related to small and micro - enterprise financing and real - estate market support [19]. - In November, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased significantly year - on - year. From January to November, the total profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 6.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The profits of the mining industry decreased by 27.2%, the manufacturing industry increased by 5.0%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 8.4% [23]. - At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the total assets of China's financial institutions were 531.76 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The total assets of the banking, securities, and insurance industries increased by 7.9%, 16.5%, and 15.4% respectively [26]. 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of December 21, the daily average retail volume of passenger cars decreased by 11.4% year - on - year, and the daily average wholesale volume decreased by 9.0% year - on - year. As of December 26, the total box office revenue in the past 7 days increased by 90.1% year - on - year. As of December 19, the total retail volume of three major household appliances decreased by 35.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales decreased by 49.7% year - on - year [29][32]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of December 21, the container throughput of ports increased by 6.6% year - on - year. As of December 26, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased by 3.2% year - on - year. The postal express collection volume increased by 0.1% year - on - year, the delivery volume increased by 1.7% year - on - year, the railway freight volume decreased by 2.0% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume decreased by 0.6% year - on - year [35][39]. 3.2.3 Industrial Operating Rate - As of December 24, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points year - on - year. As of December 25, the average asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.0 percentage points year - on - year. The soda ash operating rate increased by 2.3 percentage points year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points year - on - year [42][44]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of December 26, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days decreased by 23.0% year - on - year. As of December 19, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities decreased by 27.1% year - on - year [47][50]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of December 26, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 22.2% year - on - year, the average wholesale price of vegetables increased by 13.6% year - on - year, and the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits increased by 8.4% year - on - year. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the average spot price of WTI crude oil decreased by 16.9% year - on - year. The average spot price of rebar decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, the average spot price of iron ore increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and the average spot price of glass decreased by 20.3% year - on - year [54][58]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On December 26, most money - market interest rates showed a downward trend. Most government bond yields also decreased. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds were 1.29%, 1.59%, 1.84%, and 2.22% respectively, down 7.0BP, 0.8BP, up 0.8BP, and down 0.3BP respectively compared with December 19. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year China Development Bank bonds were 1.52%, 1.79%, 1.98%, and 2.39% respectively, down 6.0BP, 0.6BP, up 1.1BP, and down 0.4BP respectively compared with December 19. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year local government bonds were 1.48%, 1.76%, and 2.04% respectively, down 5.2BP, 1.9BP, and 0.5BP respectively compared with December 19. The yields of 1 - month and 1 - year AAA and AA+ inter - bank certificates of deposit increased to varying degrees. As of December 23, the 10 - year government bond yields of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany were 4.18%, 2.04%, 4.51%, and 2.96% respectively, up 2BP, 2BP, 1BP, and down 2BP respectively compared with December 19. On December 26, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.04 and 7.01 respectively, down 192 and 325 pips respectively compared with December 19 [61][65][70]. 3.4 Investment Suggestions - In 2026, the bond market may perform better than expected. It is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, and a 10BP cut may occur in the first quarter. Currently, it is recommended to focus on the allocation value of 5 - year bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [75][78].