国贸期货贵金属数据日报-20251229

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On December 26, the price of precious metals continued to rise significantly, especially silver. The main driver for silver's rise comes from the imbalance in the supply - demand structure, tight spot market, capital sentiment, and insufficient overseas short - term market liquidity. The gold price rose steadily, causing the gold - silver ratio to drop significantly. The domestic gold - silver ratio has dropped to around 53, and the overseas ratio to around 57, the lowest since 2013 [6]. - In the short term, the trading price of precious metals is expected to remain high and strong. However, due to the obvious "short squeeze" in the silver market, investors are advised to be cautious about chasing the rise in the short term and consider gradually taking profit on long positions to control risks [6]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed is still in an easing cycle, and factors such as increased geopolitical uncertainty, rising dollar credit risk, and continued allocation demand from global central banks, institutions, and residents will likely drive the gold price higher. Long - term investors are recommended to buy on dips [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Tracking - On December 26th, compared with the 25th, London gold spot rose 0.7% to $4511.30/oz, London silver spot rose 3.9% to $74.64/oz, COMEX gold rose 0.8% to $4541.70/oz, and COMEX silver rose 4.1% to $74.84/oz. The domestic AU2602 rose 0.7% to 1016.3 yuan/g, and AG2602 rose 5.3% to 18319 yuan/kg [5]. - Regarding price differences, on December 26th compared with the 25th, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference rose 5.7%, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference rose 402.8%, the gold internal - external price difference (TD - London) fell 4.5%, and the silver internal - external price difference (TD - London) fell 37.9% [5]. 2. Position Data - As of December 26th, compared with the 24th, the gold ETF - SPDR position rose 0.27% to 1071.13 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV position fell 0.34% to 16390.5638 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions rose 4.63% to 280920 contracts, non - commercial short positions rose 5.25% to 46942 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions rose 4.51% to 233978 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions fell 15.05% to 56034 contracts, non - commercial short positions fell 7.37% to 19682 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions fell 18.69% to 36352 contracts [5]. 3. Inventory Data - On December 26th, compared with the 25th, SHFE gold inventory rose 4.25% to 97692 kg, and SHFE silver inventory fell 3.87% to 819431 kg. Compared with the 24th, COMEX gold inventory rose 0.09% to 36191255 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.36% to 449727730 troy ounces [5]. 4. Interest Rate/Foreign Exchange/Stock Market - On December 26th, compared with the 25th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate fell 0.05% to 7.04. Compared with the 24th, the US dollar index rose 0.08% to 98.03, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.29% to 3.46%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.24% to 4.14%, the VIX rose 0.97% to 13.60, the S&P 500 fell 0.03% to 6929.94, and NYMEX crude oil fell 2.52% to $56.93 [5]. 5. Market Review and Outlook - On December 26th, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.75% to 1016.3 yuan/g, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 6.6% to 18319 yuan/kg [5].