国贸期货聚酯数据日报-20251229

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: The PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of tight supply in Q1 2026, with the PX - naphtha spread widening to $360 and the PX - mixed xylene spread rising to $244. PTA maintains high - level production, and the polyester load stays high due to new device launches. The PTA price is boosted by the overall commodity market sentiment [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Overseas MEG device maintenance plans increase, but with coal prices falling and new devices coming into operation, the supply pressure is large. The price lacks effective support, though it may get support from domestic policies [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Changes - INE Crude Oil: The price dropped from 442.7 yuan/barrel on December 25, 2025, to 441.8 yuan/barrel on December 26, 2025, a decrease of 0.90 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC: The value increased from 1934.9 yuan/ton to 2069.4 yuan/ton, a rise of 134.54 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA/SC Ratio: Rose from 1.6014 to 1.6445, an increase of 0.0431 [2]. - CFR China PX: Increased from 901 to 919, a rise of 18 [2]. - PX - Naphtha Spread: Widened from 361 to 377, an increase of 16 [2]. - PTA Main Futures Price: Rose from 5152 yuan/ton to 5280 yuan/ton, an increase of 128 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA Spot Price: Increased from 5050 yuan/ton to 5175 yuan/ton, a rise of 125 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA Spot Processing Fee: Decreased from 281.8 yuan/ton to 278.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.3 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA Futures Processing Fee: Rose from 363.8 yuan/ton to 398.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.7 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA Main Basis: Changed from (13) to (65), a decrease of 52 [2]. - PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity: Decreased from 118,854 to 116,646, a decrease of 2,208 [2]. - MEG Main Futures Price: Rose from 3818 yuan/ton to 3846 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG - Naphtha: Changed from (147.79) to (141.98), an increase of 5.8 [2]. - MEG Domestic Market: Increased from 3653 to 3666, a rise of 13 [2]. - MEG Main Basis: Rose from 0 to 40, an increase of 40 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Conditions - PX Start - up Rate: Remained at 86.28% [2]. - PTA Start - up Rate: Increased from 75.49% to 76.95%, a rise of 1.46% [2]. - MEG Start - up Rate: Remained at 61.50% [2]. - Polyester Load: Increased from 88.65% to 88.94%, a rise of 0.29% [2]. Product Price and Cash - Flow Changes - POY150D/48F: The price increased from 6440 to 6570, a rise of 130 [2]. - POY Cash - Flow: Improved from (352) to (333), an increase of 19 [2]. - FDY150D/96F: The price increased from 6730 to 6810, a rise of 80 [2]. - FDY Cash - Flow: Deteriorated from (562) to (593), a decrease of 31 [2]. - DTY150D/48F: The price increased from 7755 to 7760, a rise of 5 [2]. - DTY Cash - Flow: Deteriorated from (237) to (343), a decrease of 106 [2]. - Long - Filament Production and Sales: Increased from 41% to 48%, a rise of 7% [2]. - 1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber: The price increased from 6575 to 6690, a rise of 115 [2]. - Polyester Staple Fiber Cash - Flow: Improved from 133 to 137, an increase of 4 [2]. - Staple Fiber Production and Sales: Increased from 56% to 86%, a rise of 30% [2]. - Semi - Bright Chip: The price increased from 5720 to 5780, a rise of 60 [2]. - Chip Cash - Flow: Deteriorated from (172) to (223), a decrease of 51 [2]. - Chip Production and Sales: Increased from 49% to 55%, a rise of 6% [2]. Device Maintenance A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in Ningbo, which stopped for maintenance in late November, is expected to resume operation on the 24th [2].