2026年趋势与策略：“十五五”开局下的信用债图景：2026年趋势与策略

Group 1 - The credit bond market is expected to experience moderate growth in issuance, with a projected net financing scale of 1.8 to 2.3 trillion yuan and total issuance between 16.9 to 17.4 trillion yuan in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 3% to 6% [4] - The issuance of industrial bonds has been robust, with a total issuance of 8.13 trillion yuan from January to November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.52%, while the net financing scale reached 2.05 trillion yuan, up 52.24% [16] - The issuance of innovative bond varieties has significantly expanded, with a total issuance of 30.24 trillion yuan from January to November 2025, an increase of 122.1 billion yuan year-on-year, driven by the establishment of the "Technology Board" [22][23] Group 2 - The secondary market for credit bonds has shown steady trading activity, with total bond transactions reaching 384.89 trillion yuan from January to November 2025, a 0.91% increase from the previous year [33] - Credit spreads have narrowed to historical lows, with the spreads for various grades of bonds generally decreasing by 3 to 74 basis points compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a tightening of credit risk premiums [42] - The yield on credit bonds has exhibited an "M-shaped" fluctuation pattern, with yields remaining at relatively low levels, particularly for AAA-rated short-term notes, which are below the 25th percentile since 2014 [36][40]