瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20251229

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustment and break below the MA10 support [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 334,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,960 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai tin is down 720 yuan with a 590 - yuan decrease in the ring - comparison [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 42,490 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 345 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 50,161 lots, a decrease of 2,115 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is 62 lots, an increase of 2,415 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 4,895 tons, an increase of 220 tons [3] - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange for tin is 8,477 tons (weekly), and the warehouse receipt of Shanghai Futures Exchange for tin is 7,905 tons (daily), a decrease of 64 tons [3] - The cancelled warehouse receipt of LME tin is 190 tons, an increase of 75 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 343,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 344,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 3,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 670 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 130 US dollars/ton, an increase of 65 US dollars [3] 上游情况 - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons (monthly), an increase of 0.29 million tons [3] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 331,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 335,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3] 下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 219,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,520 yuan [3] - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 139.01 million tons (monthly), an increase of 14.47 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons [3] 行业消息 - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, expand fiscal expenditure, and support the replacement of consumer goods with old ones [3] - In November, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, with a slight increase in the first 11 months, and the profit growth rate of high - tech manufacturing accelerated. The decline in industrial production and profit margins is the main reason for the narrowing of the profit growth rate [3] 观点总结 - On the macro - level, the Ministry of Finance will continue the proactive fiscal policy in 2026 [3] - On the fundamental level, the domestic supply of imported tin ore is still tight, and the processing fee of tin ore remains low. Although Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season provide some supply increments, the overall import volume of tin ore is still low. The raw materials of tin ore are in short supply, and the production of refined tin is expected to be restricted. Indonesia's export volume increased in November, but the domestic import of tin is in a loss state, and the import volume is expected to remain low. The market's willingness to purchase tin has improved, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the LME inventory has increased significantly [3] - On the technical level, the trading volume has increased, showing an upper - shadow negative line, with increased divergence between bulls and bears, and facing key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [3]