粕类周报：近强远弱，关注政策变化-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall outlook for the粕类 market is near - strong and far - weak. Domestic rumors of customs controlling soybean imports are positive for near - term contracts and long - short spreads. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak. The trading strategy suggests a range - bound trend for single - sided trading and a long M3 - short M5 spread for arbitrage. Attention should be paid to policies and weather conditions [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is bullish. The predicted 25/26 Brazilian new - crop soybean production is 177.6 million tons. As of December 20, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 97.6%. As of December 17, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 67.3%. There are no obvious short - term weather problems. In January, domestic soybean and soybean meal are expected to seasonally reduce inventory. Customs are rumored to strictly control soybean imports until the end of May, increasing concerns about domestic soybean meal supply before May next year. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to decrease, while the supply of Australian rapeseed is expected to increase. The global rapeseed production in 2025/26 is expected to have a restorative increase [5]. - Demand: The demand for soybean meal is neutral, and that for rapeseed meal is bearish. In the short term, the high pig inventory is expected to be maintained, supporting feed demand, but the current breeding profit is in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased. Recently, the downstream trading of soybean meal was normal, and the pick - up performance was good, while the downstream trading and pick - up of rapeseed meal were cautious [5]. - Inventory: It is slightly bullish. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level in the same period of history, the reduction of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the spot supply pressure is still large, but it is expected to accelerate inventory reduction in January. This week, the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises increased. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory has been continuously decreasing [5]. - Basis/Spread: It is neutral [5]. - Profit: It is bearish. The new - crop soybean purchase and crushing profit in China is good, and the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed is also good [5]. - Valuation: It is neutral. From the perspective of crushing profit, the soybean meal futures price is at a relatively high valuation; from the perspective of absolute price, it is at a relatively low valuation [5]. - Macro and Policy: It is bullish. There are rumors in China that the customs held a meeting to strictly control soybean imports until the end of the month [5]. - Investment Viewpoint: It is bullish for near - term contracts. Rumors of customs controlling soybean imports are positive for near - term contracts and long - short spreads. Pay attention to customs policy dynamics. US soybean exports are weak, there is no obvious hype driver for South American weather, and the Brazilian premium is expected to be under pressure in the future. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, showing an overall pattern of near - strong and far - weak [5]. - Trading Strategy: Single - sided trading is expected to be range - bound, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long M3 and short M5. Risks to focus on include policies and weather [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of 粕类 - Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: In December, the US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season remained unchanged, and the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio increased. The global rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio also increased [31][38]. - Soybean Processing and Export: The US soybean domestic crushing profit has declined, the NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA monthly soybean crushing volume are presented, and the US soybean export sales progress is slow [48][55][58]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Import and Price: The Brazilian soybean planting progress, soybean CNF premium, and import soybean futures margin are shown. The Canadian rapeseed CFR price and import crushing profit are also provided, along with the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate [64][66][69]. - Domestic Inventory and Trading Volume: Domestic soybean, soybean meal, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal inventories are at high levels, and the feed enterprise inventory has increased. The trading volume of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up performance is good, while the trading volume and pick - up of rapeseed meal are cautious. The feed monthly output, pig, chicken, and egg chicken breeding profits, and related inventory data are also presented [76][93][106].