瑞达期货鸡蛋产业日报-20251229

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot price remains low, and the breeding end is still in a loss state, with poor replenishment enthusiasm, which is favorable for the forward price. However, the New Year's Day stocking has started, and the demand has rebounded slightly due to the low temperature in the north. The slaughter and food processing have slightly replenished their inventories, boosting the spot price to rise from the low level. The current in - production inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and the elimination of old hens has slowed down slightly. The high production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price. Overall, the market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The near - month contract may be in a wide - range shock state in the short term, and the far - month contract is expected to perform better than the near - month contract under the expectation of declining production capacity. One can try to go long on the far - month contract with a light position [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 2941 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 16 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 40491 hands, an increase of 4500 hands; the egg futures monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 498 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 7 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 141967 hands, a decrease of 11686 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.1 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.13 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 157 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 142 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 112.03 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 2.21; the national eliminated laying hen index is 101.18 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 13.26; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 2.8 yuan/feather, unchanged; the national new chick index is 93.62 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 26.53; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, unchanged; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.47 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.11 yuan; the average price of eliminated chickens in the main production areas is 7.74 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan; the age of eliminated chickens is 500 days, a decrease of 10 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.24 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.68 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.54 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.54 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.21 days, an increase of 0.09 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, an increase of 0.09 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13394.53 tons, an increase of 178.74 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales area is 7147 tons, an increase of 124 tons [2] Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 5.98 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.18 yuan compared with yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 5.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.73 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.20 yuan compared with yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.00 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday. The continuous losses at the breeding end have led to a decline in replenishment enthusiasm and an increase in the elimination of old hens. The laying hen inventory has slightly declined, and the market atmosphere has improved slightly [2]