棉花周报：无明显利空因素，短期高位震荡-20251229

Report Title - "No obvious negative factors, short - term high - level shock - Cotton Weekly Report 20251229" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report believes that the cotton market is expected to be volatile and bullish. International cotton prices briefly pulled back due to limited improvement in export data at the beginning of the week but then rebounded driven by improved US cotton contracts and shipment data, as well as the strength of the peripheral financial and grain markets. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton continued its strong upward trend, mainly driven by policy expectations. The market rumor of a potential reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area next year and the approaching evaluation window of the target price subsidy policy have led to strong expectations of future supply contraction. Meanwhile, the overall production and sales in the textile downstream are fair, and the slight increase in cotton yarn prices has provided some support to the market. Key attention should be paid to policies and demand - side new market information [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review US Cotton Weekly Market Review - ICE cotton was reported at 63.36 - 64.81 cents per pound, with the Friday closing price at 64.49, a week - on - week decrease of 1.2%. As of December 12, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 1039 to 21369, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of unpriced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 1343 to 38677, equivalent to 880,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of unpriced contracts of ICE sellers decreased to 48505, equivalent to 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 1188 compared to the previous week, or 30,000 tons [9] Zhengzhou Cotton Weekly Market Review - It was reported at 14040 - 14700 yuan per ton, with the Friday closing price at 14535 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 120 yuan. As of December 19, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 3870, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 3852, totaling 7722, equivalent to 324,324 tons [10] Domestic Cotton Spot Market - This week, domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose significantly. The spot fixed - price transactions of cotton were active, mainly purchased by traders. The spot fixed - price of cotton gradually increased with the rise of Zhengzhou cotton and active trading. The basis of spot sales changed little, with local rigid - demand transactions, and many transactions were light. As of Friday, the fixed - price quotes of machine - picked cotton of grades 31 - 41/double 29/impurity within 3 in the northern and southern Xinjiang regions in 2025/26 were mostly above 15400 - 15500 (on a legal weight basis). For the same quality, the low basis in the Kashgar area was CF05 + 800 - 900, and the basis quotes in the northern Xinjiang production area were mostly above 1000, with a small amount below 1000. The low basis of grade 41 was mainly 900 - 1000, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [12][15] 2. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - The China Cotton Association predicts that the total cotton output in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, reaching a new high since 2013. Among them, the Xinjiang cotton region is particularly prominent, with an expected total output of about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total output [18] Import - In October 2025, 90,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons (compared to 105,800 tons) and a month - on - month decrease of 5000 tons (compared to 95,000 tons). From January to October 2025, the cumulative import was 770,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.4% or 1.595 million tons (compared to 2.3662 million tons). In the 2025/26 season, the cumulative import was 185,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17% or 38,000 tons (compared to 223,100 tons) [24] Demand - Demand performance is average but still shows resilience. The operating rate remains flat [27][33] Profit - This week, the processing profit of ginning factories was 1013 - 1078 yuan per ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 1351.5 - - 507 yuan per ton [36] Inventory - As of the week of December 26, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.125 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 117,700 tons, 99,200 tons higher than the same period last year. At the end of November, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 925,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51,400 tons [42] 3. International Market Global Cotton Supply and Demand - In the report released by USDA on December 10, the US cotton output in the 2025/26 season was further increased by 30,000 tons to 3.11 million tons. The global cotton output was reduced by 60,000 tons to 26.08 million tons compared to November, and the global cotton consumption was reduced by 60,000 tons to 25.82 million tons, with an overall limited impact [44]