玉米周报：强现实弱预期，盘面震荡偏强-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the corn market will be in a state of oscillation, with the disk expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [4]. - The trading strategy suggests a one - side trading of oscillating and slightly stronger, and an arbitrage strategy of C03 - C05 positive spread [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation of the corn market is characterized by a strong reality and weak expectations, with the disk oscillating and slightly stronger. The fast progress of grain sales at the grass - roots level, low inventory levels at ports and downstream, and the uninitiated strategic inventory building of most traders are expected to drive the disk to be oscillating and slightly stronger under the replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bullish. The current grass - roots grain sales progress has exceeded 40%, faster than the same period last year. In the 2025/2026 season, the planting cost continues to decline. There are increases in production in the Northeast and Northwest, and a decrease in production in North China. The overall national production is expected to be abundant [4]. - Demand: Slightly bullish. In November 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.73 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.7%. The proportion of corn in the compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 43.8%. The high pig inventory and the slow capacity reduction support short - term feed demand, but the current breeding profit is in deficit, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply. Feed enterprises have a rigid demand for inventory replenishment but are cautious. Deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs but are also cautious [4]. - Inventory: Bullish. Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at the northern ports is slow, and the inventory is still at a low level. The grain inventory at the southern ports is also at a low level. Feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises have low corn inventories [4]. - Basis/Spread: Slightly bullish. The basis is at a relatively high level, and the 1 - 3 spread is firm [4]. - Profit: Bearish. The breeding profits of pigs and egg - laying poultry are in deficit, and the processing profits of deep - processing starch and alcohol are also in deficit [4]. - Valuation: Neutral. Considering the planting cost, the valuation of new - season corn is high; from the perspective of the basis, the valuation of the corn futures price is low [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Spot Market: The price is stable with a slight decline [7]. - Futures Market: The positions are at a high level [11]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Grain Sales Progress: The sales progress is fast, and the channel supply volume is shrinking [21][24]. - Port Situation: The inventory at the northern ports has increased slightly, and the grain inventory at the southern ports is at a low level [38]. - Feed Enterprises: The inventory days are at a low level, and the monthly feed production shows certain trends [44][46]. - Livestock and Poultry Breeding: Pig prices have declined slightly, and the weight reduction is not obvious. The breeding profits of pigs, broilers, and egg - laying poultry are in different situations [48][52][56]. - Deep - processing Industry: The corn consumption of deep - processing shows seasonal recovery, and the inventory is at a low level. The starch processing profit has deteriorated, and the starch inventory is at a high level. The alcohol production rate has declined, and the processing profit has decreased [64][72][94]. - Starch Demand: The performance in the beverage sector is poor, while the papermaking sector has a high operating rate and a significant increase in profit [84][85]. - Wheat Market: The wheat price has increased, and the flour demand is weak [102]. 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - 2025/2026 Report: The corn inventory - to - consumption ratios of major exporting countries have been lowered [113]. - US Corn: The export sales performance is good [119].