Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-29 09:43Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term upward trend of cotton prices has paused due to the clear increase in cotton production in 2025. However, the expectation of a potential reduction in cotton planting areas in 2026 at home and abroad is rising, and the solidified cost of seed cotton acquisition provides strong support. The demand side is favorable, with sufficient orders from Xinjiang yarn mills, high - end yarns in short supply, higher textile operating rates than last year, and enterprises restocking as needed. The easing of Sino - US tariffs benefits textile exports, and the significant increase in cotton yarn imports in November also provides strong support for export demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract was 14,435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the closing price of the main cotton yarn contract was 20,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 177,376 lots, an increase of 13,493 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 2268 lots, an increase of 219 lots. - The position volume of the main cotton contract was 868,630 lots, a decrease of 35,230 lots; the position volume of the main cotton yarn contract was 21,389 lots, a decrease of 1,813 lots. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 5,085, an increase of 232; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 19, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,541 yuan/ton, an increase of 224 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 21,140 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 12,932 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) was 13,928 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan. - The arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 21,036 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn was 22,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,599 yuan/ton, a decrease of 224 yuan. - The industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 850 thousand tons, an increase of 65 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton was 120 thousand tons, an increase of 30 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 150,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. - The profit from imported cotton was 1,613 yuan/ton, an increase of 212 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 468360 thousand tons, an increase of 175300 thousand tons. - The inventory days of yarn were 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days; the inventory days of grey fabric were 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cloth was 2.81 billion meters, an increase of 0.19 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.039 million tons, an increase of 0.038 million tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 11,593,686 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 12,275,733,101,731.408 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for cotton was 12.57%, an increase of 3.13%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for cotton was 12.54%, an increase of 3.07%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.95%, an increase of 2.73%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.28%, an increase of 1.07% [2]. Industry News - In 2025, the national cotton sowing area was 2,979.2 thousand hectares, an increase of 140.9 thousand hectares or 5.0% compared to 2024. The sowing area in Xinjiang was 3,887.5 million mu, an increase of 215.6 million mu or 5.9%. - The national cotton unit - area yield was 2,229.0 kg/ha, an increase of 57.4 kg/ha or 2.6% compared to 2024. - The national cotton total output was 6.641 million tons, an increase of 477 thousand tons or 7.7% compared to 2024. - According to the USDA report, for the week ending December 11, 2025/26, the net export sales of US upland cotton increased by 304,700 bales, a 99% increase from the previous week and a 95% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 134,400 bales, a 32% increase from the previous week and a 17% increase from the average of the previous four weeks [2].