瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The mid - term logic of the overall rise of precious metals remains unchanged. However, due to the recent continuous and rapid price increase and significant market fluctuations, silver prices may deviate significantly from fundamental factors. There is a need to be vigilant against the risk of technical corrections. This week, opportunities for the repair of the gold - silver ratio can be focused on. The London gold is expected to face resistance at $4500 per ounce and support at $4300 per ounce. The London silver is expected to have resistance at $80 per ounce and support at $70 per ounce [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 1007.180 yuan per gram, a decrease of 9.1 yuan. The closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 18201 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 107 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 166022 hands, a decrease of 14690 hands. The main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 5670 hands, a decrease of 3274 hands. The main contract trading volume of Shanghai gold is 345222 hands, an increase of 120634 hands. The main contract trading volume of Shanghai silver is 1442771 hands, an increase of 457513 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold is 97704 kilograms, an increase of 12 kilograms. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver is 796739 kilograms, a decrease of 22692 kilograms [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 1004.00 yuan, a decrease of 3.00 yuan. The spot price of Huatong No.1 silver is 19100.00 yuan, an increase of 623.00 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is 899.00 yuan per gram, a decrease of 3.18 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is 730.00 yuan per gram, an increase of 6.12 yuan [1] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The holding of SPDR gold ETF is 1071.13 tons, an increase of 2.86 tons. The holding of SLV silver ETF is 16390.56 tons, a decrease of 56.41 tons. The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 233978.00 contracts, an increase of 10092.00 contracts. The non - commercial net position of silver in CFTC is 36352.00 contracts, a decrease of 8357.00 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.07 tons, an increase of 86.24 tons. The total supply of silver in the year is 32056.00 tons, an increase of 482.00 tons. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1257.90 tons, an increase of 174.15 tons. The total demand for silver in the year is 35716.00 tons, a decrease of 491.00 tons [1] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.03, an increase of 0.12. The real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond is 1.91, unchanged. The VIX volatility index is 13.60, an increase of 0.13. The CBOE gold volatility index is 25.78, an increase of 1.97. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price is 0.00, unchanged. The gold - silver ratio is 0.00, unchanged [1] 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky held a meeting on the proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace plan". Trump said that both Zelensky and Russian President Putin hope to reach a peace agreement, and Putin is "serious" about promoting peace. A "very strong" security agreement will be reached between the US and Ukraine, and there is no deadline for relevant negotiations. According to the CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 18.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 81.2%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 46.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 44.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 8.5% [1] 3.6 Market Performance and Reasons - The intraday fluctuations in the precious metals market significantly increased today. In the early trading session, the Shanghai silver main contract once hit the daily limit, but then due to the pressure of long - position profit - taking, the prices of gold and silver quickly fell in the afternoon, and the intraday gains were completely erased. Previously, due to the continuous tightness of physical inventories, the short - squeeze sentiment in the silver market continued, the long - position atmosphere was strong, and some short - positions were forced to exit, further pushing up the silver price. However, the accumulated profit - taking positions also increased the risk of correction, and today's intraday adjustment can be regarded as the concentrated release of this risk [1] 3.7 Macro - Level Situation - The GDP growth rate in the third quarter of the US reached a two - year high, and the core PCE price index met expectations, indicating that inflation pressure has eased. Weak employment data, stable inflation, and the market's expectation that the Fed will maintain loose liquidity and may even expand its balance sheet jointly strengthen the macro - logic of a looser monetary policy. In this environment, the US dollar index is expected to remain under pressure in the short term [1] 3.8 Key Focus Points - On December 30, 2025, at 22:00, pay attention to the year - on - year change of the US FHFA housing price index. On January 1, 2026, at 21:45, pay attention to the US Markit manufacturing PMI [1]