纯碱日报：短期震荡偏强-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term investment rating of "shock - biased upward" for the soda ash industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Soda ash is currently in the stage of inventory digestion, and its price may remain shock - biased upward. Short - term attention should be paid to the trend around the 30 - day moving average. Continued attention should be given to downstream demand [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures market: The main soda ash contract opened lower and moved lower, showing weakness during the day. The three tracks of the 120 - minute Bollinger Bands are upward, indicating a shock - biased upward signal. The trading volume decreased by 233,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 34,340 lots. The intraday high was 1203, the low was 1176, and the closing price was 1181, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous day's settlement price [1] - Spot market: It remained stable. Some enterprise plants started and stopped. Shandong Haihua gradually restarted, while Jiangsu Huachang, Henan Junhua and other plants reduced production. The comprehensive output decreased. Enterprises mainly shipped previous orders, new orders were average, and downstream demand was weak, mainly replenishing inventory at low prices for rigid needs [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China is 1300, and the basis is 119 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Fundamental Data - Supply: As of December 25, domestic soda ash output was 711,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,600 tons or 1.32%. Light soda ash output was 326,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,800 tons; heavy soda ash output was 385,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,800 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 81.65%, down 1.09% from last week. Although new production capacity was put into operation recently, the overall industry operating rate decreased, and short - term supply pressure eased slightly [2] - Inventory: As of December 29, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.4066 million tons, a decrease of 31,900 tons or 2.22% compared with last Thursday. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 732,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,400 tons; heavy soda ash inventory was 674,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28,500 tons [2] - Demand: Downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash demand was relatively stable. Heavy soda ash downstream was weak. Although the production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass was stable in the short term, there was a possibility of cold - repair of glass production lines at the end of the month, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash might weaken [2][3] - Profit: As of December 25, the theoretical profit of the combined soda process (double - ton) was - 20.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 57.4 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.94%. The price of raw material rock salt was stable during the week, and the price of thermal coal continued to decline, so the cost - side support continued to weaken [3] - Import and export: In November, the domestic soda ash export volume was 189,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,100 tons. From January to November, the cumulative export volume was 1.9612 million tons, an increase of 922,500 tons compared with the same period last year. In November, the domestic soda ash import volume was 25 tons. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 21,700 tons, a decrease of 946,700 tons or 97.76% compared with the same period last year. In November, the net export of domestic soda ash was 189,200 tons; from January to November, the cumulative net export was 1.9395 million tons [3] 3.3 Main Logic Summary - Although the current soda ash output has decreased, the overall operating rate is still high. With the continuous launch of new production capacity, the overall output remains at a high level. The inventory has decreased compared with last Thursday, but it is still at a high level. There are cold - repair plans for glass production lines, so the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken. However, continuous losses, slight de - stocking and the rebound of coal prices provide short - term support. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's mention of rectifying "involution - style" competition has boosted market confidence in the short term [4]