2025 年 11 月图说债市月报：信用债供给小幅回升，政策与情绪扰动下收益率有所上行-20251229

Key Insights - The report indicates a slight increase in credit bond issuance, with a total issuance of 1.53 trillion yuan in November, up by 217.79 billion yuan from the previous month, and a net financing increase of 170.24 billion yuan to 387.49 billion yuan [4][39] - The overall bond market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern due to a combination of economic fundamentals, policy expectations, and institutional behaviors, with a focus on maintaining a neutral duration strategy and enhancing portfolio flexibility [4][9][12] - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of pressure, with fixed asset investment growth declining by 2.6% and retail sales growth decreasing by 1.6 percentage points to 1.3% [7][9] Market Review - In November, the rolling default rate in the bond market was 0.20%, with one new default from the real estate sector, specifically from Aoyuan Group, which faced liquidity issues [16][18] - The manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 49.2, indicating a still-contractionary environment, while the central bank's liquidity operations net withdrew 375.9 billion yuan [25][30] - The secondary market saw a general increase in bond yields, with 10-year government bond yields rising by 4 basis points to 1.84% [8][39] Credit Risk and Issuance - The report highlights that credit risk remains manageable, with a total of 118 high-yield bonds issued in November, amounting to 52.84 billion yuan, and a significant increase in trading volume [5][39] - The issuance costs for credit bonds generally decreased, with rates falling between 4 to 22 basis points across various types [39][42] - The report notes that the credit spread for medium-term notes widened, particularly for 1-3 year maturities, while 5-year maturities saw a narrowing of spreads [24][39] Regional and Sectoral Insights - The report indicates that Beijing had the highest credit bond issuance at 492.4 billion yuan, with Guangdong and Shanghai also showing significant issuance [44][46] - The infrastructure financing sector saw a total issuance of 347.6 billion yuan, while the financial sector had the highest net inflow of 142.4 billion yuan [43][46] - The average issuance rates varied by industry, with the information technology sector experiencing a notable increase of 93 basis points, while the cultural industry saw a decrease of 69 basis points [43][46]