海外宏观周报：假期成交清淡，市场趋于平静-20251229

Macro Economic Overview - The US dollar has weakened significantly over the past year, with the dollar index dropping from a high of approximately 110 to around 98[1] - Factors driving this decline include rising uncertainty in US fiscal and trade policies, which has diminished the long-term attractiveness of dollar assets[1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have been more aggressive than those of other major economies, leading to a narrowing interest rate differential[1] Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, the dollar has structural support; if the Fed pauses rate cuts in Q1 2026 as currently priced in by the market, it may alleviate downward pressure on the dollar[2] - AI-related capital expenditures are accelerating, with significant investments in data centers and infrastructure attracting cross-border capital inflows into US asset markets[2] - In the medium to long term, the dollar faces continued downward pressure due to potential declines in inflation and a loosening labor market, which may reinforce expectations for lower long-term interest rates[2] Risk Factors - Political instability (e.g., rising fiscal concerns in the UK and Japan), trade tensions, or a global economic slowdown could support demand for the dollar as a safe haven[3] - Unexpected strength in the US labor market or persistent inflation could delay the Fed's rate cuts[20]