国补延续有望激发供需两端消费潜能,2026年一季度白电排产稳健
Orient Securities·2025-12-29 10:12

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The continuation of national subsidies is expected to stimulate consumption potential on both supply and demand sides, with stable white goods production planned for Q1 2026 [2][3] - The "Two New" policy is optimized and extended, which is anticipated to activate greater consumption potential in the home appliance sector [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Domestic Sales Outlook - The effect of national subsidies is expected to improve domestic sales conditions in Q1 2026 after the arrival of subsidy funds, despite a marginal slowdown in the subsidy effect [3][6] - January 2026 white goods production data shows a total of 34.53 million units, a 6% increase year-on-year, with variations in production across different product categories [6] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Investment suggestions include focusing on leading companies with higher operational efficiency and mature overseas production layouts, which are seen as stable choices for investment [3] - Key stocks to consider include Midea Group (000333, not rated), Haier Smart Home (600690, not rated), and Hisense Visual (600060, increase holding) [3] - The long-term focus on overseas expansion is highlighted, with expectations for a valuation switch in 2026, particularly for Stone Technology (688169, not rated) [3] - Companies with stable core business performance and potential for a second growth curve, such as Anfu Technology (603031, not rated), are also recommended [3]