碳酸锂周报：碳酸锂市场情绪主导强势突破，期现背离与成本支撑并存-20251229

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current market is in a unilateral upward trend driven by sentiment and funds. The core contradiction lies in the huge divergence between the futures market's optimistic expectations for supply and the real - world pressures in the spot market (high costs, weak price - following ability, and accumulating warehouse receipts). The market is expected to enter a period of high - level violent fluctuations under the influence of sentiment and regulatory pressure in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and there is a need to be vigilant about the risk of a rapid correction [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Lithium Salt Market Introduction - Price Changes: The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price rose 16.89% to 120,400 yuan/ton this week. The main futures contract soared 17.16% to 130,520 yuan/ton. The prices of other lithium salts such as lithium hydroxide also increased. For example, the price of lithium hydroxide (electric carbon - coarse particles) rose 15.19% to 102,400 yuan/ton [2][4]. - Premium and Discount Changes: The premium and discount of various raw materials and enterprises decreased. For example, the premium and discount of raw materials like辉石料 decreased by 250 yuan, and that of enterprises like 赣锋锂 decreased by 200 - 300 yuan [7]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at a high level of 83.52%. There is a structural contradiction between high domestic production and the expected seasonal production reduction in salt lakes. The report also details the production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in China, including production in different regions and from different raw material sources [2]. - Demand: Cathode material manufacturers have limited acceptance of high prices and are cautious in purchasing. There is a contradiction between structural support and price suppression in the demand side [2]. - Import and Export: The report does not provide relevant data on lithium carbonate imports and exports. The transportation costs of lithium ore from South Africa, Zimbabwe, Nigeria and other countries remained unchanged this week [2][27]. - Inventory: The exchange warehouse receipts increased by 15.15% to 17,861 lots this week, indicating that the supply pressure in the spot market is being transmitted to the futures market [2][40]. - Cost and Profit: The raw material cost has risen rapidly. The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased 18.07% to 129,875 yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 9,475.3 yuan/ton, with most production capacities still in a loss state [2]. 3.3 Lithium - Battery Fundamental Analysis The report also involves the lithium - battery market, including the market conditions, supply, demand, import and export, cost - profit, and recycling of cathode materials, electrolytes, and new energy vehicles. However, specific data and analysis details are not fully presented in the provided content.