证券行业报告（2025.12.22-2025.12.26）：流动性宽松或驱动业务全面回暖

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [2] Core Views - The current brokerage sector is experiencing a comprehensive recovery driven by loose liquidity, with the 3-month Shibor stabilizing at a low of 1.60%, providing low-cost funding support for margin trading, bond trading, and brokerage services, leading to a simultaneous increase in stock trading volume, margin balance, and bond transaction volume [5] - The PE ratio of the brokerage sector has only slightly increased by 6.87% since the beginning of the year, significantly lower than the market's 23.18% increase, indicating a potential high-cost performance recovery opportunity due to the market's underestimation of brokerage earnings elasticity [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Fundamentals Tracking - The 3-month Shibor rate remained stable at 1.60%, reflecting effective liquidity management by the central bank, with a decrease of 10 basis points from 1.70% on December 24, 2024, which helps lower financing costs for brokerages [6][16] - Stock trading volume showed a significant rebound, reaching 26,212 billion yuan on December 26, with an average daily trading volume of 24,042 billion yuan, an increase of 8.89% from the previous week [6][17] - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets stabilized around 2.54 trillion yuan, reaching a new high for 2023, with an average of 25,357 billion yuan, up 1.3% from the previous week, and a year-on-year increase of 32.31% [6][19][20] - The China Bond Composite Index continued to rise, closing at 249.3072 on December 26, up 0.14% from the previous week, with bond transaction volume reaching 29,509.60 billion yuan, reflecting a "volume-price rise" pattern driven by lower funding costs [6][21] - The PE ratio of the brokerage sector (Securities II) was 25.16 as of December 26, up 3.9% from 24.21 at the end of November, indicating a valuation recovery, while the market's overall risk appetite is improving [6][24] Market Review - The A-share Securities II industry index increased by 1.58%, while the CSI 300 index rose by 1.95%, indicating that the Securities II index underperformed the CSI 300 by 0.37 percentage points [27] - The brokerage sector's year-on-year increase was only 1.14%, significantly lower than the CSI 300's 16.80% increase [27][29] - In terms of industry ranking, the A-share Securities II ranked 19th among 31 first-level industries, underperforming the non-bank financial sector [29]