贵金属周报：金价突破10月高位-20251229

Group 1: Report Core View - Last week, the gold price continued to rise, with New York gold breaking through $4,500 and Shanghai gold breaking through the 1,000-yuan mark. After the meetings of the US and Japanese central banks ended, market liquidity recovered, and the US dollar index remained weak, which was positive for the gold price. In the long run, although the gold price has broken through the late-October high, its overall performance is far inferior to other precious metals and copper, mainly due to the high short-term market risk appetite and the decline in the safe-haven demand for gold. Before the New Year's Day holiday, continuous attention should be paid to the long-short game at the $4,500 mark of New York gold, and beware of the risk of a high-level pullback before the holiday [5][21] Group 2: Market Review 2.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a chart of the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing prices [9] 2.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | December 26 | December 19 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $4,562.00 | $4,368.70 | 4.42% | | COMEX Silver | $79.68 | $67.40 | 18.22% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 1,016.30 yuan | 979.90 yuan | 3.71% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 18,319.00 yuan | 15,376.00 yuan | 19.14% | | US Dollar Index | 98.03 | 98.72 | -0.69% | | USD/CNH | 7.00 | 7.03 | -0.41% | | 10-Year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.91 | 1.92 | -0.01 | | S&P 500 | 6,929.94 | 6,834.50 | 1.40% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $56.93 | $56.65 | 0.49% | | COMEX Gold-Silver Ratio | 57.26 | 64.82 | -11.67% | | SHFE Gold-Silver Ratio | 55.48 | 63.73 | -12.95% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,071.13 tons | 1,052.54 tons | 18.59 tons | | iShare Gold ETF | 492.64 tons | 491.82 tons | 0.82 tons | [10] Group 3: Liquidity Recovery after Japanese Yen Interest Rate Hike - After the Japanese yen interest rate hike, the market showed a "boot landing" situation, with a significant recovery in short-term liquidity. The US dollar index continued to weaken, falling to the 98 mark, which was positive for the gold price [12] Group 4: Tracking of Other Indicators - Last week, the combined holdings of SPDR and iShares gold ETFs were 1,563.77 tons, an increase of 19.41 tons from the previous week. After the Japanese yen interest rate hike, precious metals generally rose, with silver's increase significantly larger than that of gold, and the gold-silver ratio continued to weaken, dropping below 60 last week [16][18]