短期内股指震荡偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term stock index fluctuates strongly: Recently, the trading volume of the stock market has gradually increased, and the stock index has risen continuously, indicating that the market risk appetite continues to recover. With the approaching of the new year, positive policy expectations are gradually fermenting. Coupled with the RMB appreciation, a large amount of relatively high - interest time deposits will mature next year, and the "re - allocation" may bring a large amount of incremental capital inflow to the stock market. The positive policy expectations and the capital inflow trend together form the medium - and long - term support for the stock index. As the stock index approaches the previous high, short - term attention should be paid to whether the stock index can break through the technical resistance of the previous high. Overall, the positive factors continue to ferment, and the stock index fluctuates strongly in the short term [3][9][80] - ETF options and stock index options: Adhere to bull spread or ratio spread. Considering that the stock index is upward in the medium - to - long - term, the idea of bull spread or ratio spread bullish can be maintained [4][81] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Stock Index Trends - Last week, the stock index fluctuated and consolidated. The recent increase in trading volume and continuous rise of the stock index indicate the continuous recovery of market risk appetite. Positive policy expectations and capital inflow trends form the medium - and long - term support for the stock index. Short - term attention should be paid to the technical resistance of the previous high [9] - The closing prices and price changes of major spot indices such as the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are provided [12] 3.1.2 Option Price Trends - The weekly price changes of various option underlying assets are given. For example, 50ETF had a weekly decline of 1.79%, and 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) had a weekly decline of 0.13% [16][17] - The weekly price changes of the main contracts of various option varieties, including the weekly price changes of call and put contracts at different exercise prices and different contract expiration months, are provided [18] 3.1.3 Stock Index Futures Basis and Monthly Differences - The basis of the four stock index futures varieties: The basis of IF and IH is at a normal quantile level, while IM and IC show a state of significant backwardation in the far - month futures. The inter - period spread between the current quarter and the next quarter of IC and IM futures has declined, indicating that market sentiment is relatively stable and the uncertainty risk in the far - month has decreased [22] 3.2 Option Indicators 3.2.1 PCR Indicators - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options, including Shanghai Composite 50ETF options, Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF options, etc., and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided [35] 3.2.2 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in January 2026 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options, such as Shanghai Composite 50ETF options, Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF options, etc., are provided [53] 3.3 Conclusion - The same as the core viewpoints, short - term stock index fluctuates strongly, and ETF options and stock index options adhere to bull spread or ratio spread [80][81]