焦炭日报：短期延续回调-20251229

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The report anticipates that coke will continue its short - term correction. The overall coke supply - demand is weak due to increasing supply and low - level operation of hot metal production along with poor steel mill profits. The fourth round of price cuts has started, and the continued implementation of crude steel production control by the NDRC is negative for raw material demand, causing short - term market sentiment to weaken [1][2]. Summary of Key Points by Section Market Analysis - Coke inventory: As of December 26, independent coke enterprises' inventory increased slightly by 1.25% to 92.24 million tons, steel mills' inventory increased by 1.34% to 642.2 million tons, and port inventory increased by nearly 2%. The comprehensive coke inventory increased by 14.36 million tons to 978.64 million tons, reaching a 12 - week high with a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [1]. - Profit: The average profit of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 18 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is - 3 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is 27 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 64 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 35 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream demand: Steel terminal demand is weak, mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. The profitability of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 percentage points to 37.23%, and the daily average hot metal output increased by 0.03 million tons to 226.58 million tons, ending a five - week decline, but still 1.29 million tons less than last year [1]. Upstream Coking Coal - Inventory: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory increased slightly by 3.43 million tons to 1039.72 million tons, steel mills' inventory increased by 1.73 million tons to 806.72 million tons, coal mine inventory increased by 10.1 million tons, and port imported coking coal inventory increased by 23.09 million tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by 1.47% to 2647.24 million tons, reaching a 7 - month high, with a year - on - year decline of nearly 14% [2]. - News: Mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin launched the fourth round of price cuts. The NDRC will continue to control crude steel production, strictly prohibit illegal new capacity, and promote survival of the fittest. The SASAC requires state - owned enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition. The National Finance Work Conference was held, stating that a more proactive fiscal policy will be continued in 2026 [2]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The 05 coke contract opened at 1720, reached a low of 1676.5, and closed at 1680.5, with an increase of 1123 lots. It declined with increasing positions during the day, and is expected to continue the short - term correction. Attention should be paid to the pressure of the 5 - day moving average and the support near the previous low [3]. - Spot: The port spot market was stable. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1460. The trading atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the inventory at the two ports increased slightly compared with the previous trading day [4].