每日核心期货品种分析-20251229

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on December 29, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like palladium and platinum hit the daily limit down, while others like iron ore saw significant increases. Different commodities are expected to have various trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - Copper: The price of Shanghai copper (SHFE copper) has been rising recently. Market sentiment was boosted by the zero - pricing of the 2026 long - term mining processing fee and Trump's remarks on the Fed chair. However, copper product profits are squeezed, and capacity utilization is declining. Copper foil remains highly prosperous. The inventory of cathode copper on the SHFE has been increasing, indicating weak downstream demand. The copper price on the five - disk rose significantly today, breaking through the 100,000 - integer mark [9][10]. - Palladium and Platinum: Both hit the daily limit down, with a decline of 10% [6]. - Carbonate Lithium: It opened high but closed nearly 8% lower. Production is expected to increase, and downstream demand is showing signs of weakening. Although the downstream energy - storage battery still maintains growth, the expected production cut of lithium iron phosphate in the first quarter will reduce the support for carbonate lithium prices. Inventory has been decreasing recently [11]. - Aluminum Oxide: The 2605 contract saw an inflow of 624 million yuan in funds [7]. - Iron Ore: It rose by over 2%, and the 2605 contract had a 1.03 - billion - yuan inflow of funds. It was one of the commodities with significant price increases and strong capital inflows [6][7]. - Hot Rolled Coil: The 2605 contract had a 211 - million - yuan inflow of funds [7]. - Gold and Silver: The 2602 contracts of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver had large - scale capital outflows, with 5.267 billion yuan and 5.166 billion yuan respectively [7]. Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC + 's eight additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year. However, the market is still in a state of supply surplus, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [12][13]. - Asphalt: The supply is expected to decrease as some refineries have plans to switch production or stop production. The demand in the north is gradually weakening, but winter - storage demand is being released. The demand in the south is average. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [14]. Chemicals - PP (Polypropylene): The downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level, and the supply is increasing with new capacity and fewer maintenance devices. The downstream is approaching the end of the peak season, and orders are decreasing. It is expected that the upward space is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16]. - Plastic: New production capacity has been put into operation recently. The agricultural film season is ending, and orders are decreasing. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected that the upward space is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][18]. - PVC: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply - side operating rate is decreasing, and downstream demand is weak. The export situation is not optimistic, and inventory pressure is high. It is expected to fluctuate [19]. Other Commodities - Coking Coal: The price opened high but closed lower. The supply from domestic mines may decrease, but imported coal is increasing. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory is rising. After the third - round price cut of coke was implemented, the fourth - round price cut has started. It is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the implementation of price cuts [20][21]. - Urea: It opened low and closed flat. The market atmosphere is average, and enterprises are reducing prices to attract orders. The daily production is around 200,000 tons. The compound - fertilizer factory's operating rate is declining, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term, be weak in the short - term, and strong in the medium - to - long - term [22]. Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: The main contracts of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) all declined, with declines of 0.56%, 0.48%, 0.67%, and 0.51% respectively [7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The main contracts of 2 - year (TS), 5 - year (TF), 10 - year (T), and 30 - year (TL) treasury bond futures all declined, with declines of 0.07%, 0.18%, 0.28%, and 0.91% respectively [7].