SHANGFENG CEMENT(SZ:000672) Dongguan Securities·2025-12-29 11:13Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company is driven by dual engines of "building materials" and "new economy investments," showing promising growth potential [4][36]. - The cement business remains robust with industry-leading profitability, supported by optimized regional layouts and refined operations [4][13]. - The company has entered a harvest period for equity investments, particularly in semiconductor, new energy, and new materials sectors, which are expected to mitigate cyclical risks of the main business [4][30]. - The company has a strong commitment to dividends, with a planned cash dividend of no less than 35% of net profit for 2025-2026, translating to a dividend yield of approximately 3.47% based on current market capitalization [4][42]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co., Ltd. primarily engages in the production and sale of cement and related building materials, with a focus on optimizing resources and expanding into new economic sectors [11]. Cement Business Stability and Profitability - The cement business accounts for 96.72% of revenue, with cement sales contributing 70.55% and clinker sales 16.88% [13]. - The company maintains a leading position in key profitability metrics such as gross margin and return on equity (ROE) [23][29]. - Despite a decline in cement production and sales, the company achieved a net profit of 5.51 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.28 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting year-on-year increases of 45.9% and 30.56% respectively [4][37]. Equity Investment Harvest Period - The company has invested over 1.7 billion in equity investments, contributing approximately 31% to net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 [30][35]. - The strategic focus on sectors supported by national policies is expected to create new growth engines [30]. Performance Recovery - The company reported a total revenue of 54.48 billion for 2024, a decrease of 14.83% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed in 2025 [37]. - The operating cash flow reached 7.55 billion, indicating a 2.34% year-on-year increase, with a low debt ratio of 42.65% [38]. Generous Dividends and Investor Returns - The company has consistently returned value to shareholders, with a dividend payout ratio of 95.73% in 2024 [42]. - Future dividend plans include a minimum of 4 billion in cash dividends annually, reinforcing the company's commitment to shareholder returns [42]. Summary and Investment Recommendations - The company is well-positioned for sustainable growth, with a strong foundation in its cement business and promising prospects in new economic sectors [43]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.72, 0.87, and 0.92 for 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16.56, 13.8, and 13 [43].