玻璃日报：短期震荡-20251229

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term volatile rating for the glass industry [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The glass market is in a stage of inventory digestion. With supply contraction, inventory is being digested relatively quickly. However, due to the continuous weakness in demand, the price may maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trend of the pressure near the 20 - day moving average. Also, continuous monitoring of macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations is necessary [4] Group 3: Market行情 Review Summary Futures Market - The glass futures main contract opened lower and fluctuated, closing with a doji star. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands tightened, indicating a volatile trend. Short - term attention should be paid to the pressure near the upper Bollinger Band line. The trading volume decreased by 353,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 1,877 lots. The intraday high was 1063, the low was 1045, and the closing price was 1051, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.57% from the previous day's settlement price [1] Spot Market - Over the weekend, prices in the Hebei market mostly dropped by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, with downstream buyers restocking at low prices and overall sales being acceptable. In the East China market, prices showed a mixed trend. Two production lines in Zhejiang shut down, causing some prices to rise, while in Shandong, under the impact of low - price supplies from North China, the price center loosened, and demand remained mainly for immediate needs. The northwest market remained stable, but with downstream enterprises gradually on holiday, the market had prices but no transactions [1] Basis - The spot price in North China was 1000, with a basis of - 51 yuan/ton [1] Group 4: Fundamental Data Summary Supply - As of December 25, the daily average output of national float glass was 154,500 tons, a decrease of 0.39% compared to the 18th. The national float glass output was 1.084 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. The industry's average operating rate was 73.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, and the average capacity utilization rate was 77.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. A float glass production line in Guangdong with a designed capacity of 900 tons per day was shut down for cold - repair, reigniting expectations for production line cold - repair [2] Inventory - The total inventory of sample enterprises was 58.623 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 weight boxes or 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, the same as the previous period [2] Demand - From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. Among them, residential investment was 604.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises from January to November were 851.45 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. The average order days of the national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. Deep - processing orders in the northern region continued to decline month - on - month, while there were little overall changes in the central and eastern regions. Orders in South China continued to increase moderately month - on - month, and in the southwest region, there were both increases and decreases, with the average order days showing a slight month - on - month decline. The scattered orders of the national deep - processing sample enterprises were still concentrated within 3 - 7 days, and the scheduling of some engineering orders was shortened to 15 - 20 days [2][3] Profit - As of December 25, according to Longzhong Information statistics, the profit from natural - gas - fired production was - 186.4 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton), the profit from petroleum - coke - fired production was - 7.2 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 7.14 yuan/ton), and the profit from coal - gas - fired production was - 21.88 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 14.26 yuan/ton) [3] Group 5: Main Logic Summary - Production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke are also in the red, which may accelerate the capacity clearance of some enterprises. The short - term market sentiment was boosted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's mention of rectifying "involution - style" competition last week. However, real estate development investment and funds in place continued to decline year - on - year, with weak completion and new construction, and the real - estate demand continued to weaken. The increasing inventory pressure and weak enterprise orders put pressure on spot prices [4]