铜价巨幅震荡，风险大幅上升

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have experienced significant fluctuations, and risks have increased substantially [3][5] - The market sentiment has shifted, with有色金属 experiencing a sharp decline in the afternoon [4] - The high - level uncertainty of copper prices has risen significantly, and the risks in the later period are relatively high [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - During the Christmas holiday in the external market this week, trading was light, and market volatility increased. Precious metals speculation in the morning session drove the collective strength of non - ferrous metals, but the market declined in the afternoon. Shanghai copper and LME copper rose, and domestic spot copper also increased [4] - LME copper reached a new historical high, trading around $12,570. Shanghai copper reached a new high in the morning and then declined in the afternoon, closing slightly higher at 98,860. Trading volume increased while positions decreased, indicating a large divergence in market sentiment [5] Price and Basis - The closing price of Shanghai copper was 98,860, and the spot price was 101,290. The spot was at a premium of 2,430 points over futures. The spot basis was at a discount of - 330 points, and spot trading was extremely poor. The LME spot premium widened to $20, and the external market spot demand was good [4] - The RMB exchange rate rose this week, and the Yangshan copper premium increased to $52.5, indicating an improvement in domestic spot demand. The LME - Shanghai ratio of copper prices remained at 7.87, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper decreased significantly to 1,021 points, with the external market ratio much higher than the domestic market [4] Inventory - This week, the US copper inventory continued to rise significantly to a new high, the LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and the Shanghai copper inventory increased. The spot demand was average [4] Production - In November, domestic copper production increased by 11.9% year - on - year [5] Demand and Premium - Domestic and LME copper demand was not good, but the buying power of US copper was extremely strong, which was the main factor driving up copper prices. Recently, the US copper inventory has continued to rise. The US accelerated inventory accumulation, causing tension in the spot market, and the premium of US copper over LME copper decreased to around $155 [5]