沪铝高位震荡，氧化铝不宜抄底

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the overseas market had the Christmas holiday, trading was light, and market volatility increased. The morning session saw continued speculation in precious metals, driving up non - ferrous metals. However, market sentiment changed, and there was a huge intraday shock. Non - ferrous metals tumbled in the afternoon. Aluminum prices in both Shanghai and London rose, as did domestic spot aluminum prices [3]. - Technically, today's sharp rise in US crude oil and LME aluminum (around $2979). Shanghai aluminum also rose sharply, closing at 22570, with a strong technical pattern. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai aluminum both increased, and market sentiment was optimistic. In the short - term, aluminum prices tend to be strong, but due to insufficient spot demand, there may be significant pressure in the medium - term. The future trend mainly depends on whether Shanghai aluminum fluctuates with copper prices and the situation of spot demand. Alumina has rebounded significantly, but its fundamentals are weak, and its medium - term trend is not optimistic [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Aluminum Market Performance - Today, Shanghai aluminum closed at 22570, and the spot price was 22490, with a spot - to - futures discount of - 80 points. This week, Shanghai aluminum rose, and the spot discount widened to - 240 yuan. Today's spot trading was poor. This week, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the alumina inventory decreased. The aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly, and the spot demand at the high level in the off - season was extremely poor. The LME inventory increased, and the LME spot discount narrowed slightly to - 35 dollars, with poor overseas spot demand. This week, the RMB exchange rate rose, and the Shanghai - London ratio of aluminum prices increased slightly to 7.55, with the internal and external markets showing generally the same trend [3]. Aluminum Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | LME Aluminum - Futures - Spot Difference | Main Contract Shanghai - London Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | December 23 | 7.0193 | - 180 | - 40 | 7.56 | | December 24 | 7.0071 | - 190 | - 36 | 7.51 | | December 25 | 7.0010 | - 180 | - 35 | 7.55 | | December 26 | 7.0041 | - 210 | - | - | | December 29 | 7.0040 | - 240 | - | - | [5]